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Related papers: Empirical Bayes Selection for Value Maximization

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Motivated by real-world applications that necessitate responsible experimentation, we introduce the problem of best arm identification (BAI) with minimal regret. This innovative variant of the multi-armed bandit problem elegantly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Junwen Yang , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Tianyuan Jin

We introduce a new adjusted residual maximum likelihood method (REML) in the context of producing an empirical Bayes (EB) confidence interval for a normal mean, a problem of great interest in different small area applications. Like other…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-29 Masayo Yoshimori , Partha Lahiri

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Benjamin Letham , Brian Karrer , Guilherme Ottoni , Eytan Bakshy

This work applies modern AI tools (transformers) to solving one of the oldest statistical problems: Poisson means under empirical Bayes (Poisson-EB) setting. In Poisson-EB a high-dimensional mean vector $\theta$ (with iid coordinates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Anzo Teh , Mark Jabbour , Yury Polyanskiy

Modern application of A/B tests is challenging due to its large scale in various dimensions, which demands flexibility to deal with multiple testing sequentially. The state-of-the-art practice first reduces the observed data stream to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-14 Hui Xu , Weinan Wang

The vast majority of statistical theory on binary classification characterizes performance in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is known in many cases to poorly reflect the practical consequences of classification error, most famously in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Shashank Singh , Justin Khim

We provide improved gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes. Compared to prior work, our bounds depend on alternative definitions of gaps. These definitions are based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Christoph Dann , Teodor V. Marinov , Mehryar Mohri , Julian Zimmert

We consider estimation and control in linear time-varying dynamical systems from the perspective of regret minimization. Unlike most prior work in this area, we focus on the problem of designing causal estimators and controllers which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Gautam Goel , Babak Hassibi

The literature focuses on the mean of welfare regret, which can lead to undesirable treatment choice due to sensitivity to sampling uncertainty. We propose to minimize the mean of a nonlinear transformation of regret and show that singleton…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-03 Toru Kitagawa , Sokbae Lee , Chen Qiu

In several realistic situations, an interactive learning agent can practice and refine its strategy before going on to be evaluated. For instance, consider a student preparing for a series of tests. She would typically take a few practice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-08 Sudeep Raja Putta , Theja Tulabandhula

A key challenge for targeted antipoverty programs in developing countries is that policymakers must rely on estimated rather than observed income, which leads to substantial targeting errors. The policy problem is not only to predict…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-08 Juan C. Yamin

We develop a form Thompson sampling for online learning under full feedback - also known as prediction with expert advice - where the learner's prior is defined over the space of an adversary's future actions, rather than the space of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Alexander Terenin , Jeffrey Negrea

The allocation of limited resources to a large number of potential candidates presents a pervasive challenge. In the context of ranking and selecting top candidates from heteroscedastic units, conventional methods often result in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-16 Bowen Gang , Luella Fu , Gareth James , Wenguang Sun

A fundamental challenge in machine learning is the choice of a loss as it characterizes our learning task, is minimized in the training phase, and serves as an evaluation criterion for estimators. Proper losses are commonly chosen, ensuring…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Han Bao , Asuka Takatsu

Learning with expert advice and multi-armed bandit are two classic online decision problems which differ on how the information is observed in each round of the game. We study a family of problems interpolating the two. For a vector…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Houshuang Chen , Yuchen He , Chihao Zhang

In many areas of medicine, security, and life sciences, we want to allocate limited resources to different sources in order to detect extreme values. In this paper, we study an efficient way to allocate these resources sequentially under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alexandra Carpentier , Michal Valko

We consider a setting where a system learns to rank a fixed set of $m$ items. The goal is produce good item rankings for users with diverse interests who interact online with the system for $T$ rounds. We consider a novel top-$1$ feedback…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-24 Sougata Chaudhuri , Ambuj Tewari

Data-driven optimization aims to translate a machine learning model into decision-making by optimizing decisions on estimated costs. Such a pipeline can be conducted by fitting a distributional model which is then plugged into the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Adam N. Elmachtoub , Henry Lam , Haixiang Lan , Haofeng Zhang

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a regret bound that ensures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Chao Qin , Zheng Wen , Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy