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Chronic respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, are a serious health crisis, affecting a large number of people globally and inflicting major costs on the economy. Current methods for assessing the…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
In this work, using the theory of first-order macroscopic crowd models, we introduce a compartmental advection-diffusion model, describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population in different human behaviors (alert, panic and control)…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
This study presents a neural network-enhanced approach to modeling disease spread dynamics over time and space. Neural networks are used to estimate time-varying parameters, with two calibration methods explored: Approximate Bayesian…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
The need to understand how infection spreads to the deep lung was acutely realized during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The challenge of modeling virus laden aerosol transport and deposition in…
We formulate a model for the dynamics of respiratory droplets and use it to study their airborne lifetime in turbulent air representative of indoor settings. This lifetime is a common metric to assess the risk of respiratory transmission of…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
We incorporate local ventilation effects into a spatially dependent generalisation of the Wells--Riley model for airborne disease transmission. Aerosol production and removal through ventilation, biological deactivation, and gravitational…
There have been several documented outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with vocalization, either by speech or by singing, in indoor confined spaces. Here, we model the risk of in-room airborne disease transmission via expiratory particle…
This work aims to provide an approach to the macroscopic modeling and simulation of pedestrian flow, coupled with contagion spreading, towards numerical investigation of the effect of certain, macro-control measures on epidemics transport…
Partial differential equation (PDE) models for infectious disease have received renewed interest in recent years. Most models of this type extend classical compartmental formulations with additional terms accounting for spatial dynamics,…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…