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We aim at providing a preliminary approach on the dynamics of a spacecraft in orbit about the asteroid (99942) Apophis during its Earth close approach. The physical properties from the polyhedral shape of the target are derived assigning…
Tumbling asteroids belong to a small group of objects, whose angular velocity vector is unaligned with any of its principal axes of inertia. This leads to challenging efforts to model the trajectory of any spacecraft designed to orbit these…
The aim is to show that in case of low probability of asteroid collision with Earth, the appropriate selection and weighing of the data are crucial for the impact investigation, and to analyze the impact possibilities using extensive…
In similar-sized planetary collisions, a significant part of the impactor often misses the target and continues downrange. We follow the dynamical evolution of "runners" from giant impacts to determine their ultimate fate. Surprisingly,…
In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…
The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities…
The presence of debris in Earth's orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space. This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches, loss of external parts from space ships, and uncontrollable collisions…
In this paper, we employ a Bayesian approach to uncertainty quantification of computer simulations used to assess the probability of rare events. As a case study, we assess the reliability of an Earth reentry capsule for sample return…
We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the…
We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use with endogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under which debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growth that may render Earth's…
Many physical plants that are controlled by embedded systems have safety requirements that need to be respected at all times - any deviations from expected behavior can result in damage to the system (often to the physical plant), the…
We analytically and numerically investigate the possibility that a still undiscovered body X, moving along an unbound hyperbolic path from outside the solar system, may penetrate its inner regions in the next few years posing a threat to…
Frontier AI models -- highly capable foundation models at the cutting edge of AI development -- may pose severe risks to public safety, human rights, economic stability, and societal value in the coming years. These risks could arise from…
Comprehensive analysis of space debris rotational dynamics is vital for active debris removal missions that require physical capture or de-tumbling of a target. We study the attitude motion of used rocket bodies acknowledgedly belonging to…
The population of Earth-impacting meteoroids and its size-dependent orbital elements are key to understanding the origin of meteorites and informing on planetary defence efforts. Outstanding questions include the role of collisions in…
It often seems as though papers bearing titles in the form of a question end with ambiguous answers. Here the situation is different: the outer Kuiper belt does have a definite future, although one of uncertain duration. Simulations provide…
Mid-Air Deployment (MAD) of a rotorcraft during Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) on Mars eliminates the need to carry a propulsion or airbag landing system. This reduces the total mass inside the aeroshell by more than 100 kg and simplifies…
The development of large constellations of satellites (i.e., so-called megaconstellations or satcons) is poised to increase the number of LEO satellites by more than an order of magnitude in the coming decades. Such a rapid growth of…
We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous…
Landing robotic spacecrafts and humans on Mars has become one of the inevitable technological necessities for humans. Effectuating perfect Mars expedition requires landing of enormous cargoes, crewed modules, ascent vehicles, and scientific…