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We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

We develop a new classification framework based on the theory of coherent risk measures and systemic risk. The proposed approach is suitable for multi-class problems when the data is noisy, scarce (relative to the dimension of the problem),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Darinka Dentcheva , Xiangyu Tian

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Fair machine learning aims to mitigate the biases of model predictions against certain subpopulations regarding sensitive attributes such as race and gender. Among the many existing fairness notions, counterfactual fairness measures the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Jing Ma , Ruocheng Guo , Mengting Wan , Longqi Yang , Aidong Zhang , Jundong Li

Algorithmic fairness is typically studied from the perspective of predictions. Instead, here we investigate fairness from the perspective of recourse actions suggested to individuals to remedy an unfavourable classification. We propose two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Julius von Kügelgen , Amir-Hossein Karimi , Umang Bhatt , Isabel Valera , Adrian Weller , Bernhard Schölkopf

Group fairness metrics are an established way of assessing the fairness of prediction-based decision-making systems. However, these metrics are still insufficiently linked to philosophical theories, and their moral meaning is often unclear.…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Joachim Baumann , Corinna Hertweck , Michele Loi , Christoph Heitz

Data and algorithms are essential and complementary parts of a large-scale decision-making process. However, their injudicious use can lead to unforeseen consequences, as has been observed by researchers and activists alike in the recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-10 Shubham Singh , Bhuvni Shah , Chris Kanich , Ian A. Kash

Background: The rapid advancement of Machine Learning (ML) represents novel opportunities to enhance public health research, surveillance, and decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of algorithmic bias,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Shaina Raza , Arash Shaban-Nejad , Elham Dolatabadi , Hiroshi Mamiya

In matched observational studies with continuous treatments, individuals with different treatment doses but the same or similar covariate values are paired for causal inference. While inexact covariate matching (i.e., covariate imbalance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-13 Anthony Frazier , Siyu Heng , Wen Zhou

This paper introduces a framework for estimating fair optimal predictions using machine learning where the notion of fairness can be quantified using path-specific causal effects. We use a recently developed approach based on Lagrange…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Razieh Nabi , David Benkeser

The challenge of balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in machine learning models, especially when sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age are considered, has motivated substantial research in recent years. Counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Bowei Tian , Ziyao Wang , Shwai He , Wanghao Ye , Guoheng Sun , Yucong Dai , Yongkai Wu , Ang Li

There has been significant progress in implementing deep learning models in disease diagnosis using chest X- rays. Despite these advancements, inherent biases in these models can lead to disparities in prediction accuracy across protected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Dana Moukheiber , Saurabh Mahindre , Lama Moukheiber , Mira Moukheiber , Mingchen Gao

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Data-driven decisions shape public health policies and practice, yet persistent disparities in data representation skew insights and undermine interventions. To address this, we advance a structured roadmap that integrates public health…

Rich meta-epidemiological data sets have been collected to explore associations between intervention effect estimates and study-level characteristics. Welton et al. proposed models for the analysis of meta-epidemiological data, but these…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-28 Kirsty Rhodes , David Mawdsley , Rebecca Turner , Hayley Jones , Jelena Savovic , Julian Higgins

In light of the outbreak of COVID-19, analyzing and measuring human mobility has become increasingly important. A wide range of studies have explored spatiotemporal trends over time, examined associations with other variables, evaluated…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Abdolmajid Erfani , Vanessa Frias-Martinez

Interest in targeted disease prevention has stimulated development of models that assign risks to individuals, using their personal covariates. We need to evaluate these models, and to quantify the gains achieved by expanding a model with…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-06-16 Alice S. Whittemore

Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision making. Yet different, equally-justifiable choices when developing, testing, and deploying…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Travis Greene , Galit Shmueli , Jan Fell , Ching-Fu Lin , Han-Wei Liu

Neuroscience has recently made much progress, expanding the complexity of both neural-activity measurements and brain-computational models. However, we lack robust methods for connecting theory and experiment by evaluating our new big…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-06 Heiko H. Schütt , Alexander D. Kipnis , Jörn Diedrichsen , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

Scoring systems, as a type of predictive model, have significant advantages in interpretability and transparency and facilitate quick decision-making. As such, scoring systems have been extensively used in a wide variety of industries such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Yi Yang , Ying Wu , Mei Li , Xiangyu Chang , Yong Tan