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Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Li Guo , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Yubo Tao

We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yeguang Chi , Qionghua , Chu , Wenyan Hao

Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Mabsur Fatin Bin Hossain , Lubna Zahan Lamia , Md Mahmudur Rahman , Md Mosaddek Khan

This paper offers a thorough examination of the univariate predictability in cryptocurrency time-series. By exploiting a combination of complexity measure and model predictions we explore the cryptocurrencies time-series forecasting task…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-14 Francesco Puoti , Fabrizio Pittorino , Manuel Roveri

Predicting cryptocurrency price trends remains a major challenge due to the volatility and complexity of digital asset markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address this problem. This study proposes a…

The growing prominence of cryptocurrencies has triggered widespread public engagement and increased speculative activity, particularly on social media platforms. This study introduces a novel classification framework for identifying…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Moein Shahiki Tash , Zahra Ahani , Mohim Tash , Mostafa Keikhay Farzaneh , Ari Y. Barrera-Animas , Olga Kolesnikova

This study investigates how social media sentiment derived from Reddit comments can be used to enhance investment decisions in a way that offers higher returns with lower risk. Using BERTweet we analyzed over 2 million Reddit comments from…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Gatik Goyal , Sharvil Phadke , Arnav Sharma , Huifang Qin

We show Bitcoin implied volatility on a 5 minute time horizon is modestly predictable from price, volatility momentum and alternative data including sentiment and engagement. Lagged Bitcoin index price and volatility movements contribute to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-30 Faizaan Pervaiz , Christopher Goh , Ashley Pennington , Samuel Holt , James West , Shaun Ng

We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-28 Vincent Gurgul , Stefan Lessmann , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

The rapid development of information technology, especially the Internet, has facilitated users with a quick and easy way to seek information. With these convenience offered by internet services, many individuals who initially invested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Novan Fauzi Al Giffary , Feri Sulianta

This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-09 Marvin Aron Kennis

Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Arthur Emanuel de Oliveira Carosia

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of a novel method called linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) on the accuracy of intraday price movement prediction of cryptocurrencies. To do this, the 1-minute interval…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcell T. Kurbucz , Péter Pósfay , Antal Jakovác

The cryptocurrency is attracting more and more attention because of the blockchain technology. Ethereum is gaining a significant popularity in blockchain community, mainly due to the fact that it is designed in a way that enables developers…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-28 TonTon Hsien-De Huang , Po-Wei Hong , Ying-Tse Lee , Yi-Lun Wang , Chi-Leong Lok , Hung-Yu Kao

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-03 Hardhik Mohanty , Bhaskar Krishnamachari

In the distributed systems landscape, Blockchain has catalyzed the rise of cryptocurrencies, merging enhanced security and decentralization with significant investment opportunities. Despite their potential, current research on…

General Economics · Economics 2025-08-11 Yihang Fu , Mingyu Zhou , Luyao Zhang

Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are becoming increasingly popular, having been widely used as an exchange medium in areas such as financial transaction and asset transfer verification. However, there has been a lack of solutions that can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-03-12 Shubhankar Mohapatra , Nauman Ahmed , Paulo Alencar

This study performs analysis of Predictive statements, Hope speech, and Regret Detection behaviors within cryptocurrency-related discussions, leveraging advanced natural language processing techniques. We introduce a novel classification…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Moein Shahiki Tash , Zahra Ahani , Mohim Tash , Olga Kolesnikova , Grigori Sidorov

In this paper, we analyze Twitter signals as a medium for user sentiment to predict the price fluctuations of a small-cap alternative cryptocurrency called \emph{ZClassic}. We extracted tweets on an hourly basis for a period of 3.5 weeks,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-04 Tianyu Ray Li , Anup S. Chamrajnagar , Xander R. Fong , Nicholas R. Rizik , Feng Fu

Cryptocurrency is a fast-moving space, with a continuous influx of new projects every year. However, an increasing number of incidents in the space, such as hacks and security breaches, threaten the growth of the community and the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Inwon Kang , Maruf Ahmed Mridul , Abraham Sanders , Yao Ma , Thilanka Munasinghe , Aparna Gupta , Oshani Seneviratne