English
Related papers

Related papers: Optimal Stopping with Gaussian Processes

200 papers

We study a mathematical model motivated by the support/resistance line method in technical analysis where the underlying stock price transitions between three states of nature in a path-dependent manner. For optimal stopping problems with…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-15 Vicky Henderson , Saul Jacka , Ruiqi Liu , Jun Maeda

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-01 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

We combine the fields of heuristic optimization and optimal stopping. We propose a strategy for benchmarking randomized optimization algorithms that minimizes the expected total cost for obtaining a good solution with an optimal number of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-12-07 Walter Vinci , Daniel A. Lidar

In a classical optimal stopping problem in continuous time, the agent can choose any stopping time without constraint. Dupuis and Wang (Optimal stopping with random intervention times, Advances in Applied Probability, 34, 141--157, 2002)…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 David Hobson , Matthew Zeng

We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, It\^o diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-10 Timothy C. Johnson

This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi-Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Fang Chen , Xianping Guo , Zhong-Wei Liao

We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-12-14 I. Garcia , J. Jimenez

We propose a method based on continuous time Markov chain approximation to compute the distribution of Parisian stopping times and price Parisian options under general one-dimensional Markov processes. We prove the convergence of the method…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Gongqiu Zhang , Lingfei Li

Simulating realistic financial time series is essential for stress testing, scenario generation, and decision-making under uncertainty. Despite advances in deep generative models, there is no consensus metric for their evaluation. We focus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Ruben Bontorno , Songyan Hou

Solving optimal stopping problems by backward induction in high dimensions is often very complex since the computation of conditional expectations is required. Typically, such computations are based on regression, a method that suffers from…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-19 Martin Redmann

We develop methods to solve general optimal stopping problems with opportunities to stop that arrive randomly. Such problems occur naturally in applications with market frictions. Pivotal to our approach is that our methods operate on…

Parameter estimation is crucial for modeling, tracking, and control of complex dynamical systems. However, parameter uncertainties can compromise system performance under a controller relying on nominal parameter values. Typically,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-20 Mouhyemen Khan , Abhijit Chatterjee

Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Krista Longi , Jakob Lindinger , Olaf Duennbier , Melih Kandemir , Arto Klami , Barbara Rakitsch

With the significant advancement in quantum computation in the past couple of decades, the exploration of machine-learning subroutines using quantum strategies has become increasingly popular. Gaussian process regression is a widely used…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-03-07 Siddhartha Das , George Siopsis , Christian Weedbrook

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

We propose an algorithm to actively estimate the parameters of a linear dynamical system. Given complete control over the system's input, our algorithm adaptively chooses the inputs to accelerate estimation. We show a finite time bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Kevin Jamieson

The identification of the constrained dynamics of mechanical systems is often challenging. Learning methods promise to ease an analytical analysis, but require considerable amounts of data for training. We propose to combine insights from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 A. Rene Geist , Sebastian Trimpe

A fundamental aspect of racing is overtaking other race cars. Whereas previous research on autonomous racing has majorly focused on lap-time optimization, here, we propose a method to plan overtaking maneuvers in autonomous racing. A…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-05-27 Tim Brüdigam , Alexandre Capone , Sandra Hirche , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

We consider an optimal stopping problem with n correlated offers where the goal is to design a (randomized) stopping strategy that maximizes the expected value of the offer in the sequence at which we stop. Instead of assuming to know the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Pieter Kleer , Daan Noordenbos

Our purpose is to study a particular class of optimal stopping problems for Markov processes. We justify the value function convexity and we deduce that there exists a boundary function such that the smallest optimal stopping time is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-22 Diana Dorobantu