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Related papers: Optimal Stopping with Gaussian Processes

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Gaussian processes (GP) are a widely used model for regression problems in supervised machine learning. Implementation of GP regression typically requires $O(n^3)$ logic gates. We show that the quantum linear systems algorithm [Harrow et…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-05-29 Zhikuan Zhao , Jack K. Fitzsimons , Joseph F. Fitzsimons

In this paper we consider a method of solving optimal stopping problems in discrete and continuous time based on their dual representation. A novel and generic simulation-based optimization algorithm not involving nested simulations is…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-10 Denis Belomestny

Gaussian Processes are widely used for regression tasks. A known limitation in the application of Gaussian Processes to regression tasks is that the computation of the solution requires performing a matrix inversion. The solution also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Sourish Das , Sasanka Roy , Rajiv Sambasivan

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-27 Giorgio Corani , Alessio Benavoli , Marco Zaffalon

Gaussian process regression is a well-established Bayesian machine learning method. We propose a new approach to Gaussian process regression using quantum kernels based on parameterized quantum circuits. By employing a hardware-efficient…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-02-06 Frederic Rapp , Marco Roth

We propose a practical Bayesian optimization method using Gaussian process regression, of which the marginal likelihood is maximized where the number of model selection steps is guided by a pre-defined threshold. Since Bayesian optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-19 Jungtaek Kim , Seungjin Choi

In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-17 Taco de Wolff , Alejandro Cuevas , Felipe Tobar

In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-16 Denis Belomestny , Volker Kraetschmer

Optimization of expensive computer models with the help of Gaussian process emulators in now commonplace. However, when several (competing) objectives are considered, choosing an appropriate sampling strategy remains an open question. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-10-03 Victor Picheny

We develop a theory of optimal stopping problems under G-expectation framework. We first define a new kind of random times, called G-stopping times, which is suitable for this problem. For the discrete time case with finite horizon, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Hanwu Li

We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-06 David Tolpin

In this paper we consider discrete and continuous time risk sensitive optimal stopping problem. Using suitable properties of the underlying Feller-Markov process we prove continuity of the optimal stopping value function and provide formula…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Damian Jelito , Marcin Pitera , Łukasz Stettner

We derive closed-form solutions to the optimal stopping problems related to the pricing of perpetual American standard and lookback put and call options in the extensions of the Black-Merton-Scholes model with progressively enlarged…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Libo Li

We propose an efficient optimization algorithm for selecting a subset of training data to induce sparsity for Gaussian process regression. The algorithm estimates an inducing set and the hyperparameters using a single objective, either the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-12 Yanshuai Cao , Marcus A. Brubaker , David J. Fleet , Aaron Hertzmann

Bayesian optimization is a popular framework for efficiently tackling black-box search problems. As a rule, these algorithms operate by iteratively choosing what to evaluate next until some predefined budget has been exhausted. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 James T. Wilson

Optimal stopping is the problem of deciding the right time at which to take a particular action in a stochastic system, in order to maximize an expected reward. It has many applications in areas such as finance, healthcare, and statistics.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Abderrahim Fathan , Erick Delage

In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Denis Belomestny , John Schoenmakers , Vladimir Spokoiny , Bakhyt Zharkynbay

In this paper, we explore an optimal timing strategy for the trading of price spreads exhibiting mean-reverting characteristics. A sequential optimal stopping framework is formulated to analyze the optimal timings for both entering and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-06 Boming Ning , Prakash Chakraborty , Kiseop Lee

Due to its state-of-the-art estimation performance complemented by rigorous and non-conservative uncertainty bounds, Gaussian process regression is a popular tool for enhancing dynamical system models and coping with their inaccuracies.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-05 Anna Scampicchio , Elena Arcari , Amon Lahr , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Under the hypothesis of convergence in probability of a sequence of c\`{a}dl\`{a}g processes $(X^n)\_n$ to a c\`{a}dl\`{a}g process $X$, we are interested in the convergence of corresponding values in optimal stopping and also in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 François Coquet , Sandrine Toldo