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A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-20 Kevin H. Knuth , Anthony Gotera , Charles T. Curry , Karen A. Huyser , Kevin R. Wheeler , William B. Rossow

For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-02 Trent Kyono , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

Causal discovery is the subfield of causal inference concerned with estimating the structure of cause-and-effect relationships in a system of interrelated variables, as opposed to quantifying the strength or describing the form of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Rebecca F. Supple , Hannah Worthington , Ben Swallow

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jianhong Chen , Naichen Shi , Xubo Yue

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

As causal ground truth is incredibly rare, causal discovery algorithms are commonly only evaluated on simulated data. This is concerning, given that simulations reflect preconceptions about generating processes regarding noise…

Causal discovery studies the problem of mining causal relationships between variables from data, which is of primary interest in science. During the past decades, significant amount of progresses have been made toward this fundamental data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-28 Kui Yu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Over the past two decades, the rapid surge in data-intensive computational techniques for statistical modeling may have had the effect of diminishing the use of applied mathematics in causal scientific inquiry. In this paper, co-authored by…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Marzieh Asgari-Targhi , Amene Asgari-Targhi , Mahboubeh Asgari-Targhi , Edward J. , Hall

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Jiuyong Li , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

Entropic causal inference is a recent framework for learning the causal graph between two variables from observational data by finding the information-theoretically simplest structural explanation of the data, i.e., the model with smallest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Spencer Compton , Kristjan Greenewald , Dmitriy Katz , Murat Kocaoglu

Machine learning algorithms are designed to capture complex relationships between features. In this context, the high dimensionality of data often results in poor model performance, with the risk of overfitting. Feature selection, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Paolo Bonetti , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is rarely straightforward, but the problem is especially difficult in high dimensions. For these applications, causal discovery algorithms typically require parametric restrictions or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-29 David S. Watson , Ricardo Silva

Comparing two samples of data, we observe a change in the distribution of an outcome variable. In the presence of multiple explanatory variables, how much of the change can be explained by each possible cause? We develop a new estimation…

Like natural complex systems such as the Earth's climate or a living cell, semiconductor lithography systems are characterized by nonlinear dynamics across more than a dozen orders of magnitude in space and time. Thousands of sensors…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Errol Zalmijn , Tom Heskes , Tom Claassen

Causal discovery amounts to unearthing causal relationships amongst features in data. It is a crucial companion to causal inference, necessary to build scientific knowledge without resorting to expensive or impossible randomised control…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Fabrizio Russo , Anna Rapberger , Francesca Toni

Understanding climate change requires reasoning over complex causal networks. Yet, existing causal discovery datasets predominantly capture explicit, direct causal relations. We introduce ClimateCause, a manually expert-annotated dataset of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Liesbeth Allein , Nataly Pineda-Castañeda , Andrea Rocci , Marie-Francine Moens

Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan