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Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…

For pulsar projects it is often necessary to predict the pulse phase in advance, for example, when preparing for new observations. Interpolation of the pulse phase between existing measurements is also often required, for example, when…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-04 X. P. Deng , W. Coles , G. Hobbs , M. J. Keith , R. N. Manchester , R. M. Shannon , J. H. Zheng

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-13 Richard J. Boys , Holly F. Ainsworth , Colin S. Gillespie

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

The quantitative formulation of evolution equations is the backbone for prediction, control, and understanding of dynamical systems across diverse scientific fields. Besides deriving differential equations for dynamical systems based on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-01-06 Tim W. Kroll , Oliver Kamps

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Peter A. G. Watson

Stochastic interpolants offer a robust framework for continuously transforming samples between arbitrary data distributions, holding significant promise for generative modeling. Despite their potential, rigorous finite-time convergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Yuhao Liu , Rui Hu , Yu Chen , Longbo Huang

Describing dynamic medical systems using machine learning is a challenging topic with a wide range of applications. In this work, the possibility of modeling the blood glucose level of diabetic patients purely on the basis of measured data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 David Jödicke , Daniel Parra , Gabriel Kronberger , Stephan Winkler

Complex systems are often characterized by the interplay of multiple interconnected dynamical processes operating across a range of temporal scales. This phenomenon is widespread in both biological and artificial scenarios, making it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-08 Giorgio Nicoletti , Daniel M. Busiello

Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-05-31 Brandon Weiss , Jean-François Paquet , Steffen A. Bass

We discuss a connection (and a proper place in this framework) of the unforced and deterministically forced Burgers equation for local velocity fields of certain flows, with probabilistic solutions of the so-called Schr\"{o}dinger…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 P. Garbaczewski , G. Kondrat , R. Olkiewicz

The extremely regular, periodic radio emission from millisecond pulsars makes them useful tools for studying neutron star astrophysics, general relativity, and low-frequency gravitational waves. These studies require that the observed pulse…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-17 Sarah J. Vigeland , Michele Vallisneri

The problem of missing values in multivariable time series is a key challenge in many applications such as clinical data mining. Although many imputation methods show their effectiveness in many applications, few of them are designed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Ye Xue , Diego Klabjan , Yuan Luo

We propose a new approach to constructing a neural network for predicting expectations of stochastic differential equations. The proposed method does not need data sets of inputs and outputs; instead, the information obtained from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Naoki Sugishita , Jun Ohkubo

Time lags are ubiquitous in biophysiological processes and more generally in real-world complex networks. It has been recently proposed to use information-theoretic tools such as transfer entropy to detect and estimate a possible delay in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-10-03 M. L. Rosinberg , G. Tarjus , T. Munakata

Time series forecasting using historical data has been an interesting and challenging topic, especially when the data is corrupted by missing values. In many industrial problem, it is important to learn the inference function between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Trang H. Tran , Lam M. Nguyen , Kyongmin Yeo , Nam Nguyen , Dzung Phan , Roman Vaculin , Jayant Kalagnanam

A new Bayesian software package for the analysis of pulsar timing data is presented in the form of TempoNest which allows for the robust determination of the non-linear pulsar timing solution simultaneously with a range of additional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-04 Lindley Lentati , Paul Alexander , Michael P. Hobson , Farhan Feroz , Rutger van Haasteren , Kejia Lee , Ryan M. Shannon

We propose the first deep learning solution to video frame inpainting, a challenging instance of the general video inpainting problem with applications in video editing, manipulation, and forensics. Our task is less ambiguous than frame…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-11-06 Ximeng Sun , Ryan Szeto , Jason J. Corso

We focus on an interpolation method referred to Bayesian reconstruction in this paper. Whereas in standard interpolation methods missing data are interpolated deterministically, in Bayesian reconstruction, missing data are interpolated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-27 Shun Kataoka , Muneki Yasuda , Kazuyuki Tanaka

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-11-12 Kairui Hao , Ilias Bilionis