Related papers: The fallacy of herd immunity
We propose a framework for the description of the effects of vaccinations on the spreading of an epidemic disease. Different vaccines can be dosed, each providing different immunization times and immunization levels. Differences due to…
Debunking misinformation is an important and time-critical task as there could be adverse consequences when misinformation is not quashed promptly. However, the usual supervised approach to debunking via misinformation classification…
Medical and population health science researchers frequently make ambiguous statements about whether they believe their study sample or results are "representative" of some (implicit or explicit) target population. Here, we provide a…
The propagation of model epidemics on a small-world network under the action of immunization is studied. Although the connectivity in this kind of networks is rather uniform, a vaccination strategy focused on the best connected individuals…
The way diseases spread through schools, epidemics through countries, and viruses through the Internet is crucial in determining their risk. Although each of these threats has its own characteristics, its underlying network determines the…
Revisiting the thirty years-old notions of resource-bounded immunity and simplicity, we investigate the structural characteristics of various immunity notions: strong immunity, almost immunity, and hyperimmunity as well as their…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for…
The paper describes a method to understand time required to vaccinate against viruses in total as well as subpopulations. As a demonstration, a model based estimate for time required to vaccinate H1N1 in India, given its administrative…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Contradiction is often seen as a defect of intelligent systems and a dangerous limitation on efficiency. In this paper we raise the question of whether, on the contrary, it could be considered a key tool in increasing intelligence in…
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…
Here we treat the transmission of disease through a population as a standard Galton-Watson branching process, modified to take the presence of vaccination into account. Vaccination reduces the number of secondary infections produced per…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…
The mitigation of an infectious disease spreading has recently gained considerable attention from the research community. It may be obtained by adopting sanitary measurements social rules, together with an extensive vaccination campaign.…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
In epidemic or pandemic situations, resources for testing the infection status of individuals may be scarce. Although group testing can help to significantly increase testing capabilities, the (repeated) testing of entire populations can…
The topic of finding effective strategy to halt virus in complex network is of current interest. We propose an immunization strategy for seasonal epidemics that occur periodically. Based on the local information of the infection status from…
The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is…
Optimization of vaccine allocations among different segments of a heterogeneous population is important for enhancing the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in reducing the burden of epidemics. Intuitively, it would seem that…