Related papers: Unbiased time-average estimators for Markov chains
Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…
We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate…
We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…
We propose a two step strategy for estimating one-dimensional dynamical parameters of a quantum Markov chain, which involves quantum post-processing the output using a coherent quantum absorber and a "pattern counting'' estimator computed…
We derive a finite-sample probabilistic bound on the parameter estimation error of a system identification algorithm for Linear Switched Systems. The algorithm estimates Markov parameters from a single trajectory and applies a variant of…
We develop a weakest-precondition-style calculus \`a la Dijkstra for reasoning about amortized expected runtimes of randomized algorithms with access to dynamic memory - the $\textsf{aert}$ calculus. Our calculus is truly quantitative, i.e.…
Slow mixing is the central hurdle when working with Markov chains, especially those used for Monte Carlo approximations (MCMC). In many applications, it is only of interest to estimate the stationary expectations of a small set of…
In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…
In this work we find a new formula for matrix averages over the Gaussian ensemble. Let ${\bf H}$ be an $n\times n$ Gaussian random matrix with complex, independent, and identically distributed entries of zero mean and unit variance. Given…
In this paper, we present a numerical framework for constructing bounds on stationary performance measures of random walks in the positive orthant using the Markov reward approach. These bounds are established in terms of stationary…
We provide quantitative upper bounds on the total variation mixing time of the Markov chain corresponding to the unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (uHMC) algorithm. For two general classes of models and fixed time discretization step size…
A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…
A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…
For nonparametric regression with one-sided errors and a boundary curve model for Poisson point processes we consider the problem of efficient estimation for linear functionals. The minimax optimal rate is obtained by an unbiased estimation…
Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly used method for approximating expectations with respect to probability distributions. Uncertainty assessment for MCMC estimators is essential in practical applications. Moreover, for…
Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…