Related papers: Unbiased time-average estimators for Markov chains

This paper aims at improving the convergence to equilibrium of finite ergodic Markov chains via permutations and projections. First, we prove that a specific mixture of permuted Markov chains arises naturally as a projection under the KL…

In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

For a discrete time Markov chain and in line with Strotz' consistent planning we develop a framework for problems of optimal stopping that are time-inconsistent due to the consideration of a non-linear function of an expected reward. We…

In this paper, we explicitly derive unbiased estimators for various functions of the rate parameter of the exponential distribution in the absence of a location parameter, including powers of the rate parameter, the $q$th quantile, the…

Suppose we observe a geometrically ergodic semi-Markov process and have a parametric model for the transition distribution of the embedded Markov chain, for the conditional distribution of the inter-arrival times, or for both. The first two…

We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we…

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…

Let F be an unknown univariate distribution function to be estimated from a sample containing censored observations and tau be in dom(F). The author has derived a novel nonparametric estimator F_hat for F without making any assumptions…

Given noisy, partial observations of a time-homogeneous, finite-statespace Markov chain, conceptually simple, direct statistical inference is available, in theory, via its rate matrix, or infinitesimal generator, $\mathsf{Q}$, since $\exp…

We consider a general model of unitary parameter estimation in presence of Markovian noise, where the parameter to be estimated is associated with the Hamiltonian part of the dynamics. In absence of noise, unitary parameter can be estimated…

We propose a new abstract formalism for probabilistic timed systems, Parametric Interval Probabilistic Timed Automata, based on an extension of Parametric Timed Automata and Interval Markov Chains. In this context, we consider the…

Motivated by applications of distributed linear estimation, distributed control and distributed optimization, we consider the question of designing linear iterative algorithms for computing the average of numbers in a network. Specifically,…

The Integral Fluctuation Theorem for entropy production (IFT) is among the few equalities that are known to be valid for physical systems arbitrarily driven far from equilibrium. Microscopically, it can be understood as an inherent symmetry…

Motivated by applications in large-scale and multi-agent reinforcement learning, we study the non-asymptotic performance of stochastic approximation (SA) schemes with delayed updates under Markovian sampling. While the effect of delays has…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…

This paper proposes a novel distributed optimization framework that addresses time-varying optimization problems without requiring explicit derivative information of the objective functions. Traditional distributed methods often rely on…

Graphs are commonly used to model various complex systems, including social networks, power grids, transportation networks, and biological systems. In many applications, the connectivity of these networks can be expressed through the Mean…

For one-parameter continuous exponential families, we identify an unbiased estimator of the inverse of the natural parameter $\theta$ for cases where $\theta > 0$, extending an earlier result of \cite{voinov1985unbiased} applicable to a…