Related papers: Unbiased time-average estimators for Markov chains

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

System identification in modern engineering systems faces emerging challenges from unanticipated adversarial attacks beyond existing detection mechanisms. In this work, we obtain a provably accurate estimate of the Markov parameter matrix…

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling and predicting a class of functional time series with application to energy markets, based on fully observed, noise-free functional data. Traders in such contexts conceive profitable…

Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: i.e., the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g.,…

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

In this work we consider the unbiased estimation of expectations w.r.t.~probability measures that have non-negative Lebesgue density, and which are known point-wise up-to a normalizing constant. We focus upon developing an unbiased method…

We describe estimators $\chi_n(X_0,X_1,...,X_n)$, which when applied to an unknown stationary process taking values from a countable alphabet ${\cal X}$, converge almost surely to $k$ in case the process is a $k$-th order Markov chain and…

The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of…

We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method…

Given an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain on a finite state space, we consider the largest expected hitting time $T(\alpha)$ of a set of stationary measure at least $\alpha$ for $\alpha\in(0,1)$. We obtain tight inequalities among the…

This work analyzes the stochastic approximation algorithm with non-decaying gains as applied in time-varying problems. The setting is to minimize a sequence of scalar-valued loss functions $f_k(\cdot)$ at sampling times $\tau_k$ or to…

We obtain universal estimates on the convergence to equilibrium and the times of coupling for continuous time irreducible reversible finite-state Markov chains, both in the total variation and in the L^2 norms. The estimates in total…

We study the finite-time convergence of projected linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation with constant step sizes and Polyak--Ruppert averaging. We establish an explicit mean-square error bound, decomposing it into two interpretable…

The recent thought-provoking paper by Hansen [2022, Econometrica] proved that the Gauss-Markov theorem continues to hold without the requirement that competing estimators are linear in the vector of outcomes. Despite the elegant proof, it…

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

In this work we present a modified neural network model which is capable to simulate Markov Chains. We show how to express and train such a network, how to ensure given statistical properties reflected in the training data and we…

Functional time series have become an integral part of both functional data and time series analysis. Important contributions to methodology, theory and application for the prediction of future trajectories and the estimation of functional…

For a Markov transition kernel $P$ and a probability distribution $ \mu$ on nonnegative integers, a time-sampled Markov chain evolves according to the transition kernel $P_{\mu} = \sum_k \mu(k)P^k.$ In this note we obtain CLT conditions for…

Using concentration inequalities, we give non-asymptotic confidence intervals for estimates obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, when using the approximation $\mathbb{E}_{\pi} f\approx (1/(N-t_0))\cdot \sum_{i=t_0+1}^N…