Related papers: From the Stochastic Weather to a Putative Chaotic …

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…

The variation of a planet's obliquity is influenced by the existence of satellites with a high mass ratio. For instance, the Earth's obliquity is stabilized by the Moon, and would undergo chaotic variations in the Moon's absence. In turn,…

The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…

Chaotic itinerancy is a universal dynamical concept that describes itinerant motion among many different ordered states through chaotic transition in dynamical systems. Unlike the expectation of the prevalence of chaotic itinerancy in…

Exerting fluctuations is a part of our daily life: traffic noise, heartbeat, opinion poll, currency exchange rate, electrical current, chemical reactions - they all permanently fluctuate. One of the most important questions is why the…

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…

Ecosystems, which are intricate amalgams of biological communities and their surrounding environments, continually evolve under the influence of their myriad interactions. The world is currently facing intensifying environmental…

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…

We present a new chaotic system of three coupled ordinary differential equations, limited to quadratic nonlinear terms. A wide variety of dynamical regimes are reported. For some parameters, chaotic reversals of the amplitudes are produced…

We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…

The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the…

In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…

In principle, all the natural systems such as biological, ecological and economical systems are structure-variable systems (in which some environment parameters are not fixed). In this Letter we show that data sequences from many…

Our recent interest is focused on establishing the necessary and sufficient conditions that guarantee a long-term stable evolution of both natural and artificial systems. Two necessary conditions, called global and local boundedness, are…

We study a system whose dynamics are governed by predictions of its future states. A general formalism and concrete examples are presented. We find that the dynamical characteristics depend on how to shape the predictions as well as on how…

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term coevolution of…

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

It is proposed, based on the Landau-Ginzburg Theory of phase transitions, that the transition of the Earth System from the stable conditions of the Holocene to the human driven condition of the Anthropocene is, actually, a phase transition,…

Predictability horizon properties of chaotic dynamical systems can be related to their spectral properties. It is shown, using this relationship, that the spectral properties of the leading large-scale climate daily indices indicate a…