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Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast…
Multivariate time series forecasting is of great importance to many scientific disciplines and industrial sectors. The evolution of a multivariate time series depends on the dynamics of its variables and the connectivity network of causal…
Learning the dynamics of complex systems features a large number of applications in data science. Graph-based modeling and inference underpins the most prominent family of approaches to learn complex dynamics due to their ability to capture…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…
The multiple-subject vector autoregression (multi-VAR) model captures heterogeneous network Granger causality across subjects by decomposing individual sparse VAR transition matrices into commonly shared and subject-unique paths. The model…
Classical regression methods treat covariates as a vector and estimate a corresponding vector of regression coefficients. Modern applications in medical imaging generate covariates of more complex form such as multidimensional arrays…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
There is currently an increasing interest in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. VARs are popular tools for macroeconomic forecasting and use of larger models has been demonstrated to often improve the forecasting ability compared to…
A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…
Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…
VAR models are a type of multi-equation model that have been widely applied in econometrics. With the arrival of Big Data, huge amounts of data are being collected in numerous fields, making feasible the application of these kind of…
Undirected graphical models are powerful tools for uncovering complex relationships among high-dimensional variables. This paper aims to fully recover the structure of an undirected graphical model when the data naturally take matrix form,…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…
This paper introduces a matrix-variate regression model for analyzing multivariate data observed across spatial locations and over time. The model's design incorporates a mean structure that links covariates to the response matrix and a…
We apply methods from randomized numerical linear algebra (RandNLA) to develop improved algorithms for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We first develop a new fast algorithm to estimate the leverage scores of an autoregressive…
We improve upon the two-stage sparse vector autoregression (sVAR) method in Davis et al. (2016) by proposing an alternative two-stage modified sVAR method which relies on time series graphical lasso to estimate sparse inverse spectral…
Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between…
Neighborhood graphs are gaining popularity as a concise data representation in machine learning. However, naive graph construction by pairwise distance calculation takes $O(n^2)$ runtime for $n$ data points and this is prohibitively slow…
Unsupervised fault detection in multivariate time series plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of complex systems. Traditional methods often assume that normal data follow a single Gaussian distribution and identify anomalies…