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Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

This paper introduces the Descriptive Variational Autoencoder (DVAE), an unsupervised and end-to-end trainable neural network for predicting vehicle trajectories that provides partial interpretability. The novel approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Marion Neumeier , Andreas Tollkühn , Thomas Berberich , Michael Botsch

A data-driven framework is proposed towards the end of predictive modeling of complex spatio-temporal dynamics, leveraging nested non-linear manifolds. Three levels of neural networks are used, with the goal of predicting the future state…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-09-14 Jiayang Xu , Karthik Duraisamy

State inference and parameter learning in sequential models can be successfully performed with approximation techniques that maximize the evidence lower bound to the marginal log-likelihood of the data distribution. These methods may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Helena Calatrava , Ricardo Augusto Borsoi , Tales Imbiriba , Pau Closas

Hybrid Monte Carlo is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from complex continuous distributions. However, a major limitation of HMC is its inability to be applied to discrete domains due to the lack of gradient signal.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Priyank Jaini , Didrik Nielsen , Max Welling

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular generative model used to approximate distributions. The encoder part of the VAE is used in amortized learning of latent variables, producing a latent representation for data samples. Recently,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-12 Daniel G. Edelberg , Roy R. Lederman

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) has established itself as a widely used method for approximate inference on Bayesian hierarchical models which can be represented as a latent Gaussian model (LGM). INLA is based on…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-06 Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Håvard Rue

In this paper, we show that the performance of a learnt generative model is closely related to the model's ability to accurately represent the inferred \textbf{latent data distribution}, i.e. its topology and structural properties. We…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-02 Shuyu Lin , Ronald Clark

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

Uncertainty Quantification through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be prohibitively expensive for target probability densities with expensive likelihood functions, for instance when the evaluation it involves solving a Partial…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-11 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl , Colin Fox , Tim J. Dodwell

Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) is a useful tool for efficiently learning probabilistic models in machine learning. Generally approximate posteriors learned by ADVI are forced to be unimodal in order to facilitate use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Warren R. Morningstar , Sharad M. Vikram , Cusuh Ham , Andrew Gallagher , Joshua V. Dillon

Probabilistic forecasting of high dimensional multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging task, both in terms of computational burden and distribution modeling. Most previous work either makes simple distribution assumptions or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Nam Nguyen , Brian Quanz

Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is widely used as a generative model to approximate a model's posterior on latent variables by combining the amortized variational inference and deep neural networks. However, when paired with strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Qile Zhu , Jianlin Su , Wei Bi , Xiaojiang Liu , Xiyao Ma , Xiaolin Li , Dapeng Wu

This work proposes a simple yet effective sampling framework for combinatorial optimization (CO). Our method builds on discrete Langevin dynamics (LD), an efficient gradient-guided generative paradigm. However, we observe that directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Shengyu Feng , Yiming Yang

Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-22 Toru Kitagawa , Yizhou Kuang

Machine learning (ML) tools such as encoder-decoder deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) are able to extract relationships between inputs and outputs of large complex systems directly from raw data. For time-varying systems the…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-03-25 Alexander Scheinker , Frederick Cropp , Sergio Paiagua , Daniele Filippetto

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

In this paper, we propose a new numerical method for the underdamped Langevin diffusion (ULD) and present a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in the 2-Wasserstein distance when the $d$-dimensional target distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-25 Maximilian Scott , Dáire O'Kane , Andraž Jelinčič , James Foster

This study introduces a computationally efficient algorithm, delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC), designed to improve posterior simulation in quasi-Bayesian inference. Quasi-Bayesian methods, which do not require fully…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-16 Masahiro Tanaka

Multimodal variational autoencoders (VAEs) aim to capture shared latent representations by integrating information from different data modalities. A significant challenge is accurately inferring representations from any subset of modalities…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Yuta Oshima , Masahiro Suzuki , Yutaka Matsuo
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