Related papers: Normal approximation of compound Hawkes functional…

Wasserstein distance induces a natural Riemannian structure for the probabilities on the Euclidean space. This insight of classical transport theory is fundamental for tremendous applications in various fields of pure and applied…

The aim of this paper is to establish the uniform convergence of the densities of a sequence of random variables, which are functionals of an underlying Gaussian process, to a normal density. Precise estimates for the uniform distance are…

We study fluctuations of mean-field interacting particle systems around their McKean--Vlasov limit. Our main result provides a uniform-in-time quantitative central limit theorem for the fluctuation process, with convergence rate of order…

Let $\xi$ be the stationary occupation field generated by a Poisson system of independent simple symmetric random walks on $\mathbb Z$ in space--time dimension $1+1$. For a finite set $A\subset\mathbb Z$, we consider the classical…

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

We develop a general framework for statistical inference with the 1-Wasserstein distance. Recently, the Wasserstein distance has attracted considerable attention and has been widely applied to various machine learning tasks because of its…

We consider a sequence of Hawkes processes whose excitation measures may depend on the generation, and study its scaling limits in the near-unstable limiting regime. The limiting random measures, characterized via a nonlinear convolutional…

The velocity of a passive particle in a one-dimensional wave field is shown to converge in law to a Wiener process, in the limit of a dense wave spectrum with independent complex amplitudes, where the random phases distribution is invariant…

We provide finite-particle convergence rates for the Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm in the Kernelized Stein Discrepancy ($\mathsf{KSD}$) and Wasserstein-2 metrics. Our key insight is that the time derivative of the…

The adapted Wasserstein distance controls the calibration errors of optimal values in various stochastic optimization problems, pricing and hedging problems, optimal stopping problems, etc. However, statistical aspects of the adapted…

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

This paper studies convergence of empirical measures smoothed by a Gaussian kernel. Specifically, consider approximating $P\ast\mathcal{N}_\sigma$, for $\mathcal{N}_\sigma\triangleq\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2 \mathrm{I}_d)$, by…

In this paper, we investigate a class of spherical functional autoregressive processes, and we discuss the estimation of the corresponding autoregressive kernels. In particular, we first establish a consistency result (in sup and…

Continuous Time Markov Chains, Hawkes processes and many other interesting processes can be described as solution of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson measures. Previous works, using the Stein's method, give the…

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

We obtain Stein approximation bounds for stochastic integrals with respect to a Poisson random measure over ${\Bbb R}^d$, $d\geq 2$. This approach relies on third cumulant Edgeworth-type expansions based on derivation operators defined by…

The asymptotic behaviour of empirical measures has been studied extensively. In this paper, we consider empirical measures of given subordinated processes on complete (not necessarily compact) and connected Riemannian manifolds with…

We present a novel framework for performing statistical sampling, expectation estimation, and partition function approximation using \emph{arbitrary} heuristic stochastic processes defined over discrete state spaces. Using a highly parallel…

We define a modified Wasserstein distance for distribution clustering which inherits many of the properties of the Wasserstein distance but which can be estimated easily and computed quickly. The modified distance is the sum of two terms.…

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…