Related papers: Optimal empirical Bayes estimation for the Poisson…
A central problem in the theory of empirical Bayes is to control the regret (excess risk) of a learned Bayes rule by the Hellinger distance between the estimated and true marginal densities. In the normal means model, the classical result…
We propose a new procedure for inference on optimal treatment regimes in the model-free setting, which does not require to specify an outcome regression model. Existing model-free estimators for optimal treatment regimes are usually not…
In the need for low assumption inferential methods in infinite-dimensional settings, Bayesian adaptive estimation via a prior distribution that does not depend on the regularity of the function to be estimated nor on the sample size is…
The bias of an estimator is defined as the difference of its expected value from the parameter to be estimated, where the expectation is with respect to the model. Loosely speaking, small bias reflects the desire that if an experiment is…
A common way of characterizing minimax estimators in point estimation is by moving the problem into the Bayesian estimation domain and finding a least favorable prior distribution. The Bayesian estimator induced by a least favorable prior,…
This paper deals with the robust estimation problem of a signal given noisy observations. We assume that the actual statistics of the signal and observations belong to a ball about the nominal statistics. This ball is formed by placing a…
Algorithmic recourse aims to recommend an informative feedback to overturn an unfavorable machine learning decision. We introduce in this paper the Bayesian recourse, a model-agnostic recourse that minimizes the posterior probability odds…
This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…
We investigate the problem of continuous-time causal estimation under a minimax criterion. Let $X^T = \{X_t,0\leq t\leq T\}$ be governed by the probability law $P_{\theta}$ from a class of possible laws indexed by $\theta \in \Lambda$, and…
We propose a principled framework for nonparametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimation, based on the idea that the prior should be consistent with the observed posterior and that Bayesian updating should be stable. Focusing on discretized…
The James-Stein estimator has attracted much interest as a shrinkage estimator that yields better estimates than the maximum likelihood estimator. The James-Stein estimator is also very useful as an argument in favor of empirical Bayesian…
When faced with a small sample from a large universe of possible outcomes, scientists often turn to the venerable Good--Turing estimator. Despite its pedigree, however, this estimator comes with considerable drawbacks, such as the need to…
Empirical Bayes small area estimation based on the well-known Fay-Herriot model may produce unreliable estimates when outlying areas exist. Existing robust methods against outliers or model misspecification are generally inefficient when…
This paper is devoted to the multivariate estimation of a vector of Poisson means. A novel loss function that penalises bad estimates of each of the parameters and the sum (or equivalently the mean) of the parameters is introduced. Under…
Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…
This paper is concerned with general nonlinear regression models where the predictor variables are subject to Berkson-type measurement errors. The measurement errors are assumed to have a general parametric distribution, which is not…
The problem of Bayes minimax estimation for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution under quadratic loss has attracted significant attention recently. These estimators have the advantageous property of being admissible, similar to…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a…
In this work, we introduce a novel estimator of the predictive risk with Poisson data, when the loss function is the Kullback-Leibler divergence, in order to define a regularization parameter's choice rule for the Expectation Maximization…
A common approach to modelling extreme values is to consider the excesses above a high threshold as realisations of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. While this method offers the advantage of modelling using threshold-invariant extreme…