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We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-21 Burkhard C. Schipper

Incomplete preferences provide the epistemic foundation for models of imprecise subjective probabilities and utilities that are used in robust Bayesian analysis and in theories of bounded rationality. This paper presents a simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Robert Nau

Nontransitive choices have long been an area of curiosity within economics. However, determining whether nontransitive choices represent an individual's preference is a difficult task since choice data is inherently stochastic. This paper…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-01 Mogens Fosgerau , John Rehbeck

We propose and develop an algebraic approach to revealed preference. Our approach dispenses with non algebraic structure, such as topological assumptions. We provide algebraic axioms of revealed preference that subsume previous, classical…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-06-01 Mikhail Freer , Cesar Martinelli

Nonlinear higher order difference equations with linear arguments (containing linear forms within nonlinear maps of the space) are well-defined on Banach algebras. The scalar forms of these equations (i.e., with real variables and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-01-16 H. Sedaghat

The Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes show that the expected utility hypothesis and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are violated in real life decisions. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely accepted. On the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-01-08 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo

A demandance is a psychological "pull" exerted by a stimulus. It is closely related to the theory of "affordance". I introduce the theory of demandance, offer some motivating examples, briefly explore its psychological basis, and examine…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2015-07-08 Jeff Shrager

We develop a nonparametric approach to identify and estimate consumer preferences and unobserved heterogeneity under nonlinear price schedules. Leveraging variation across multiple price schedules, we show that both the utility function and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Samuele Centorrino , Frédérique Fève , Jean-Pierre Florens

Quantum cognition in decision-making is a recent and rapidely growing field. In this paper we develop an expected utility theory in a context of non-classical (quantum) uncertainty. We replace the classical state space with a Hilbert space…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-29 Vladimir V. Danilov , Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky , Vassily Vergopoulos

Random utility theory models an agent's preferences on alternatives by drawing a real-valued score on each alternative (typically independently) from a parameterized distribution, and then ranking the alternatives according to scores. A…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2012-11-13 Hossein Azari Soufiani , David C. Parkes , Lirong Xia

The von Neumann and Morgenstern theory postulates that rational choice under uncertainty is equivalent to maximization of expected utility (EU). This view is mathematically appealing and natural because of the affine structure of the space…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-12-22 Roman V. Belavkin

We introduce a new paradigm for game theory -- Bayesian satisfaction. This novel approach is a synthesis of the idea of Bayesian rationality introduced by Aumann, and satisfaction games. The concept of Bayesian rationality for which, in…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Langford White , Oskar Rynkiewicz , Duong Nguyen , Hung Nguyen

Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-10 Gert de Cooman , Erik Quaeghebeur

This paper proposes a theory of pricing premised upon the assumptions that customers dislike unfair prices---those marked up steeply over cost---and that firms take these concerns into account when setting prices. Since they do not observe…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-06-15 Erik Eyster , Kristof Madarasz , Pascal Michaillat

Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-03 Carole Bernard , Jit Seng Chen , Steven Vanduffel

The von Neumann-Morgenstern (VNM) utility theorem shows that under certain axioms of rationality, decision-making is reduced to maximizing the expectation of some utility function. We extend these axioms to increasingly structured…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Mehran Shakerinava , Siamak Ravanbakhsh

We identify the (filter representation of the) logic behind the recent theory of coherent sets of desirable (sets of) things, which generalise coherent sets of desirable (sets of) gambles as well as coherent choice functions, and show that…

Logic · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Gert de Cooman , Arthur Van Camp , Jasper De Bock

An analyst is tasked with producing a statistical study. The analyst is not monitored and is able to manipulate the study. He can receive payments contingent on his report and trusted data collected from an independent source, modeled as a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-02 Yaron Azrieli , Christopher Chambers , Paul Healy , Nicolas Lambert

We develop a theory of quantum rational decision making in the tradition of Anscombe and Aumann's axiomatisation of preferences on horse lotteries. It is essentially the Bayesian decision theory generalised to the space of Hermitian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-12-08 Alessio Benavoli , Alessandro Facchini , Marco Zaffalon

We study a simple example of a sequential game illustrating problems connected with making rational decisions that are universal for social sciences. The set of chooser's optimal decisions that manifest his preferences in case of a constant…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Edward W. Piotrowski , Marcin Makowski