Related papers: About the waiting time for a strong earthquake
Spatial distances between subsequent earthquakes in southern California exhibit scale-free statistics, with a critical exponent $\delta \approx 0.6$, as well as finite size scaling. The statistics are independent of the threshold magnitude…
The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…
We show that seismic waiting time distributions in California and Iceland have many features in common as, for example, a power-law decay with exponent $\alpha \approx 1.1$ for intermediate and with exponent $\gamma \approx 0.6$ for short…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
We develop a general theory of the time distribution of quantum events, applicable to a large class of problems such as arrival time, dwell time and tunneling time. A stopwatch ticks until an awaited event is detected, at which time the…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
The behavior of seismicity in the area candidate to suffer a main shock is investigated after the observation of the Seismic Electric Signal activity until the impending mainshock. This makes use of the concept of natural time $\chi$ and…
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…
We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive earthquakes, based on the two-dimensional (2-D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff)…
We note the striking similarity between earthquake and CRESST microfracture data for waiting times.
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
Long periods of strong southward magnetic fields are known to be the primary cause of intense geomagnetic storms. The majority of such events are caused by the passage over Earth of a magnetic ejecta. Irrespective of the interplanetary…
The probability distribution of inter-event time (IET) between two consecutive earthquakes is a measure for the uncertainty in the occurrence time of earthquakes in a region of interest. It is well known that the IET distribution for…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock,…
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
By analyzing the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic catalog for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes --interoccurrence times-- can be described…