Related papers: About the waiting time for a strong earthquake
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…
Trapped particles bursts have long been observed to be frequently occurred several hours before earthquakes, especially for strong earthquakes, from several space experiments during past decades. However, the validity of earthquake origin…
Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…
A promising perspective is presented that humans can provide hourly warning for strong land earthquakes (EQs, Ms6). Two important atmospheric electrostatic signal features are described. A table that lists 9 strong land EQs with shock time,…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…
Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
The interevent time distribution characterizes the temporal occurrence in seismic catalogs. Universal scaling properties of this distribution have been evidenced for entire catalogs and seismic sequences. Recently, these universal features…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
A recently proposed unified scaling law for interoccurrence times of earthquakes [P. Bak et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 88}, 178501 (2002)] is analyzed, both theoretically and with data from Southern California. We decompose the…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…
It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…
The statistical properties of the seismic time series data in southern California are studies. In particular, the calm time intervals, which are the time intervals between successive significant earthquakes above the fixed threshold value…
The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event.…