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The conditional particle filter (CPF) is a promising algorithm for general hidden Markov model smoothing. Empirical evidence suggests that the variant of CPF with backward sampling (CBPF) performs well even with long time series. Previous…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-29 Anthony Lee , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Matti Vihola

Increasing availability of vehicle GPS data has created potentially transformative opportunities for traffic management, route planning and other location-based services. Critical to the utility of the data is their accuracy. Map-matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-30 Kira Kempinska , Toby Davies , John Shawe-Taylor

State filtering is a key problem in many signal processing applications. From a series of noisy measurement, one would like to estimate the state of some dynamic system. Existing techniques usually adopt a Gaussian noise assumption which…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-16 Bin Liu

We present a novel approach for improving particle filters for multi-target tracking. The suggested approach is based on drift homotopy for stochastic differential equations. Drift homotopy is used to design a Markov Chain Monte Carlo step…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-02-11 Vasileios Maroulas , Panagiotis Stinis

Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in unknown system parameters from limited data remains a challenging inverse problem in a variety of real-world applications. While many approaches focus on estimating constant parameters, a subset of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-09 Andrea Arnold

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Yuhao Liu , Marzieh Ajirak , Petar Djuric

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-18 Shixiang Gu , Zoubin Ghahramani , Richard E. Turner

We propose a new sampling-based approach for approximate inference in filtering problems. Instead of approximating conditional distributions with a finite set of states, as done in particle filters, our approach approximates the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Xuan Su , Wee Sun Lee , Zhen Zhang

We design a sequential Monte Carlo scheme for the dual purpose of Bayesian inference and model selection. We consider the application context of urban mobility, where several modalities of transport and different measurement devices can be…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-29 Luca Martino , Jesse Read , Victor Elvira , Francisco Louzada

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

In this paper we introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially-observed multivariate diffusions. %continuous-time dynamic models where the %signal is given by a multivariate diffusion process. We consider a variety of…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Paul Fearnhead , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

We investigate the performance of a class of particle filters (PFs) that can automatically tune their computational complexity by evaluating online certain predictive statistics which are invariant for a broad class of state-space models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-26 Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez , Petar M. Djurić

We present a new approach-the ALVar estimator-to estimation of asymptotic variance in sequential Monte Carlo methods, or, particle filters. The method, which adjusts adaptively the lag of the estimator proposed in [Olsson, J. and Douc, R.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-21 Alessandro Mastrototaro , Jimmy Olsson

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is degenerate or low. More precisely, one is given access to a discrete time observation sequence which at any time $k$ depends only on the state of an…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-17 Abylay Zhumekenov , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Particle filtering methods can be applied to estimation problems in discrete spaces on bounded domains, to sample from and marginalise over unknown hidden states. As in continuous settings, problems such as particle degradation can arise:…

The implicit particle filter seeks to mitigate particle degeneracy by identifying particles in the target distribution's high-probability regions. This study is motivated by the need to enhance computational tractability in implementing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-08 Iman Askari , Mulugeta A. Haile , Xuemin Tu , Huazhen Fang

Stochastic sampling techniques are ubiquitous in real-time rendering, where performance constraints force the use of low sample counts, leading to noisy intermediate results. To remove this noise, the post-processing step of temporal and…

Graphics · Computer Science 2023-10-25 William Donnelly , Alan Wolfe , Judith Bütepage , Jon Valdés

Bayesian filtering aims at tracking sequentially a hidden process from an observed one. In particular, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques propagate in time weighted trajectories which represent the posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-22 Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries

We introduce a novel particle-based algorithm for end-to-end training of latent diffusion models. We reformulate the training task as minimizing a free energy functional and obtain a gradient flow that does so. By approximating the latter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Tim Y. J. Wang , Juan Kuntz , O. Deniz Akyildiz

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert