Related papers: Bayesian order identification of ARMA models with …

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…

ARFIMA is a time series forecasting model, which is an improved ARMA model, the ARFIMA model proposed in this article is demonstrated and deduced in detail. combined with network traffic of CERNET backbone and the ARFIMA model,the result…

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic relationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algorithm for learning model parameters. To…

Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…

The positive link prediction (PLP) problem is formulated in a system identification framework: we consider dynamic graphical models for auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) Gaussian random processes. For the identification of the…

This article is concerned with the identification of autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models. Most of the existing approaches like prediction error minimization and state-space framework are widely accepted and utilized for the…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is one of the most important models in time series analysis.We consider the Bayesian estimation of an unknown spectral density in the ARMA model.In the i.i.d. cases, Komaki showed that Bayesian…

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Motivated by structural biology applications, we study the projected multi-reference alignment (MRA) model, in which an unknown signal is observed through noisy samples, each generated by applying a random cyclic shift followed by a fixed…

We consider the problem of choosing the optimal (in the sense of mean-squared prediction error) multistep predictor for an autoregressive (AR) process of finite but unknown order. If a working AR model (which is possibly misspecified) is…

Conditional inference on arbitrary subsets of variables is a core problem in probabilistic inference with important applications such as masked language modeling and image inpainting. In recent years, the family of Any-Order Autoregressive…

This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…

Online system identification algorithms are widely used for monitoring, diagnostics and control by continuously adapting to time-varying dynamics. Typically, these algorithms consider a model structure that lacks parsimony and offers…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…

This work develops an active learning framework to intelligently enrich data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) of parametric dynamical systems, which can serve as the foundation of virtual assets in a digital twin. Data-driven ROMs are…