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Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

We propose a method for conducting asymptotically valid inference for treatment effects in a multi-valued treatment framework where the number of units in the treatment arms can be small and do not grow with the sample size. We accomplish…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-05-25 Marina Dias , Demian Pouzo

To promote precision medicine, individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) are crucial for optimizing the expected clinical outcome based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing ITR research has primarily focused on scenarios…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Chang Wang , Lu Wang

The estimation of causal effects using quasiexperiments often relies on the use of unusual or serendipitous sources of exogenous variation. When the goal is estimating the same causal effects across many different settings, the same unusual…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Nick Huntington-Klein

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare leverage individual-level causal effect predictions in order to give the best treatment to each individual or to prioritize program interventions for the individuals…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing…

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

Treatment noncompliance is pervasive in infectious disease cluster-randomized trials. Although all individuals within a cluster are assigned the same treatment condition, the treatment uptake status may vary across individuals due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Chao Cheng , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fan Li

The present paper proposes a new treatment effects estimator that is valid when the number of time periods is small, and the parallel trends condition holds conditional on covariates and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of interactive…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-16 Nicholas Brown , Kyle Butts , Joakim Westerlund

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

For many kinds of interventions, such as a new advertisement, marketing intervention, or feature recommendation, it is important to target a specific subset of people for maximizing its benefits at minimum cost or potential harm. However, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-12 Yanbo Xu , Divyat Mahajan , Liz Manrao , Amit Sharma , Emre Kiciman

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Akanksha Negi , Didier Nibbering

Unlike classical causal inference, which often has an average causal effect of a treatment within a population as a target, in settings such as personalized medicine, the goal is to map a given unit's characteristics to a treatment tailored…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-13 Ilya Shpitser , Sourjya Sarkar

Identifying subgroups, which respond differently to a treatment, both in terms of efficacy and safety, is an important part of drug development. A well-known challenge in exploratory subgroup analyses is the small sample size in the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-28 Marius Thomas , Björn Bornkamp

Precision medicine leverages patient heterogeneity to estimate individualized treatment regimens, formalized, data-driven approaches designed to match patients with optimal treatments. In the presence of competing events, where multiple…

In personalised decision making, evidence is required to determine whether an action (treatment) is suitable for an individual. Such evidence can be obtained by modelling treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups. The existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Shisheng Zhang , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Triple difference designs have become increasingly popular in empirical economics. The advantage of a triple difference design is that, within a treatment group, it allows for another subgroup of the population -- potentially less impacted…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-04 Laura Caron