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We introduce a new class of tree-based models, P-Trees, for analyzing (unbalanced) panel of individual asset returns, generalizing high-dimensional sorting with economic guidance and interpretability. Under the mean-variance efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Lin William Cong , Guanhao Feng , Jingyu He , Xin He

We propose a new ensemble prediction method, Random Subset Averaging (RSA), tailored for settings with many covariates, particularly in the presence of strong correlations. RSA constructs candidate models via binomial random subset strategy…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Wenhao Cui , Jie Hu

We study continuous-time mean--variance portfolio selection in markets where stock prices are diffusion processes driven by observable factors that are also diffusion processes, yet the coefficients of these processes are unknown. Based on…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-31 Yilie Huang , Yanwei Jia , Xun Yu Zhou

We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-04 Taras Bodnar , Mathias Lindholm , Vilhelm Niklasson , Erik Thorsén

We develop the idea of using Monte Carlo sampling of random portfolios to solve portfolio investment problems. In this first paper we explore the need for more general optimization tools, and consider the means by which constrained random…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-08-24 William T. Shaw

In this article we deal with the problem of portfolio allocation by enhancing network theory tools. We use the dependence structure of the correlations network in constructing some well-known risk-based models in which the estimation of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-14 Gian Paolo Clemente , Rosanna Grassi , Asmerilda Hitaj

Classical portfolio optimization methods typically determine an optimal capital allocation through the implicit, yet critical, assumption of statistical time-invariance. Such models are inadequate for real-world markets as they employ…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Bruno Scalzo , Alvaro Arroyo , Ljubisa Stankovic , Danilo P. Mandic

Betas are possibly the most frequently applied tool to analyze how securities relate to the market. While in very widespread use, betas only express dynamics derived from second moment statistics. Financial returns data often deviate from…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-20 Sven Serneels

This paper considers the constrained portfolio optimization in a generalized life-cycle model. The individual with a stochastic income manages a portfolio consisting of stocks, a bond, and life insurance to maximize his or her consumption…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-29 Wenyuan Li , Pengyu Wei

Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-20 Byung-Geun Choi , Napat Rujeerapaiboon , Ruiwei Jiang

Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-18 Stéphane Crépey , Matthew Dixon

The use of improved covariance matrix estimators as an alternative to the sample estimator is considered an important approach for enhancing portfolio optimization. Here we empirically compare the performance of 9 improved covariance…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-27 Ester Pantaleo , Michele Tumminello , Fabrizio Lillo , Rosario N. Mantegna

The probability distribution for the relative return of a portfolio constructed from a subset n of the assets from a benchmark, consisting of N assets whose returns are multivariate normal, is completely characterized by its tracking error.…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Mark B. Wise , Vineer Bhansali

In this paper, we document a novel machine learning based bottom-up approach for static and dynamic portfolio optimization on, potentially, a large number of assets. The methodology applies to general constrained optimization problems and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-24 Qing Yang , Zhenning Hong , Ruyan Tian , Tingting Ye , Liangliang Zhang

Current approaches to fair valuation in insurance often follow a two-step approach, combining quadratic hedging with application of a risk measure on the residual liability, to obtain a cost-of-capital margin. In such approaches, the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-22 Karim Barigou , Valeria Bignozzi , Andreas Tsanakas

We examine machine learning and factor-based portfolio optimization. We find that factors based on autoencoder neural networks exhibit a weaker relationship with commonly used characteristic-sorted portfolios than popular dimensionality…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Thomas Conlon , John Cotter , Iason Kynigakis

I discuss some theoretical results with a view to motivate some practical choices in portfolio optimization. Even though the setting is not completely general (for example, the covariance matrix is assumed to be non-singular), I attempt to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-01-29 Vassilios Papathanakos

This study explores the use of Transformer-based models to predict both covariance and semi-covariance matrices for ETF portfolio optimization. Traditional portfolio optimization techniques often rely on static covariance estimates or…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-02 Jiahao Zhu , Hengzhi Wu

The presence of non linear instruments is responsible for the emergence of non Gaussian features in the price changes distribution of realistic portfolios, even for Normally distributed risk factors. This is especially true for the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-11-23 Giacomo Bormetti , Valentina Cazzola , Danilo Delpini , Giacomo Livan

In this paper, we solve portfolio rebalancing problem when security returns are represented by uncertain variables considering transaction costs. The performance of the proposed model is studied using constant-proportion portfolio insurance…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-20 Mostafa Zandieh , Seyed Omid Mohaddesi