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Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

In the classical principal-agent hidden-action contract model, a principal delegates the execution of a costly task to an agent. In order to complete the task, the agent chooses an action from a set of actions, where each potential action…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Tomer Ezra , Stefano Leonardi , Matteo Russo

Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Jean Kaddour , Srijan Patel , Gbètondji Dovonon , Leo Richter , Pasquale Minervini , Matt J. Kusner

Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Vivian Lai , Chenhao Tan

Automated Vehicles require exhaustive testing in simulation to detect as many safety-critical failures as possible before deployment on public roads. In this work, we focus on the core decision-making component of autonomous robots: their…

We frame the meta-learning of prediction procedures as a search for an optimal strategy in a two-player game. In this game, Nature selects a prior over distributions that generate labeled data consisting of features and an associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Alex Luedtke , Incheoul Chung , Oleg Sofrygin

A principal delegates decisions to a biased agent. Payoffs depend on a state that the principal cannot observe. Initially, the agent does not observe the state, but he can acquire information about it at a cost. We characterize the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-11-21 Ian Ball , Xin Gao

Recent approaches to goal recognition have leveraged planning landmarks to achieve high-accuracy with low runtime cost. These approaches, however, lack a probabilistic interpretation. Furthermore, while most probabilistic models to goal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Kin Max Gusmão , Ramon Fraga Pereira , Felipe Meneguzzi

We consider a setting where in a known future time, a certain continuous random variable will be realized. There is a public prediction that gradually converges to its realized value, and an expert that has access to a more accurate…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-05-25 Amir Ban , Yossi Azar , Yishay Mansour

As network traffic monitoring software for cybersecurity, malware detection, and other critical tasks becomes increasingly automated, the rate of alerts and supporting data gathered, as well as the complexity of the underlying model,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-05-14 Kartik Talamadupula , Octavian Udrea , Anton Riabov , Anand Ranganathan

Opinion dynamics is nowadays a very common field of research. In this article we formulate and then study a novel, namely strategic perspective on such dynamics: There are the usual normal agents that update their opinions, for instance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-09 Rainer Hegselmann , Stefan König , Sascha Kurz , Christoph Niemann , Jörg Rambau

When multiple informative equilibria are possible in a general cheap talk game, how much information can a principal guarantee herself? To answer this question, I define the notion of worst-case implementation-implementation via the worst…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-17 Andrei Iakovlev

A principal wishes to transact business with a multidimensional distribution of agents whose preferences are known only in the aggregate. Assuming a twist (= generalized Spence-Mirrlees single-crossing) hypothesis and that agents can choose…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2009-12-17 Alessio Figalli , Young-Heon Kim , Robert J. McCann

A principal must decide between two options. Which one she prefers depends on the private information of two agents. One agent always prefers the first option; the other always prefers the second. Transfers are infeasible. One application…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-24 Deniz Kattwinkel , Axel Niemeyer , Justus Preusser , Alexander Winter

We present an approach to generating natural language justifications of decisions derived from norm-based reasoning. Assuming an agent which maximally satisfies a set of rules specified in an object-oriented temporal logic, the user can ask…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Daniel Kasenberg , Antonio Roque , Ravenna Thielstrom , Meia Chita-Tegmark , Matthias Scheutz

Despite the extensive use of the agent technology in the Supply Chain Management field, its integration with Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS) tools still represents a promising field with several open research questions. Specifically,…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2011-07-19 Luis Antonio de Santa-Eulalia , Sophie D'Amours , Jean-Marc Frayret

The use of deceptive strategies is important for an agent that attempts not to reveal his intentions in an adversarial environment. We consider a setting in which a supervisor provides a reference policy and expects an agent to follow the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Mustafa O. Karabag , Melkior Ornik , Ufuk Topcu

AI agents -- systems that combine foundation models with reasoning, planning, memory, and tool use -- are rapidly becoming a practical interface between natural-language intent and real-world computation. This survey synthesizes the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Bin Xu

Time-inconsistency is a characteristic of human behavior in which people plan for long-term benefits but take actions that differ from the plan due to conflicts with short-term benefits. Such time-inconsistent behavior is believed to be…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Yasunori Akagi , Naoki Marumo , Takeshi Kurashima

An important feature of pervasive, intelligent assistance systems is the ability to dynamically adapt to the current needs of their users. Hence, it is critical for such systems to be able to recognize those goals and needs based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Nils Wilken , Lea Cohausz , Johannes Schaum , Stefan Lüdtke , Heiner Stuckenschmidt