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We study the fundamental problem of designing contracts in principal-agent problems under uncertainty. Previous works mostly addressed Bayesian settings in which principal's uncertainty is modeled as a probability distribution over agent's…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Martino Bernasconi , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi

Consensus planning is a method for coordinating decision making across complex systems and organizations, including complex supply chain optimization pipelines. It arises when large interdependent distributed agents (systems) share common…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Alvaro Maggiar , Lee Dicker , Michael Mahoney

Executing various sequences of system functions in a system under test represents one of the primary techniques in software testing. The natural way to create effective, consistent and efficient test sequences is to model the system under…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Miroslav Bures , Bestoun S. Ahmed

Decision-makers in high-stakes selection processes often face a fundamental choice: whether to make decisions themselves or to delegate authority to another entity whose incentives may only be partially aligned with their own. Such…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Benjamin Fish , Diptangshu Sen , Juba Ziani

AI models that predict the future behavior of a system (a.k.a. predictive AI models) are central to intelligent decision-making. However, decision-making using predictive AI models often results in suboptimal performance. This is primarily…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Akhil S Anand , Shambhuraj Sawant , Dirk Reinhardt , Sebastien Gros

The stable marriage problem and its extensions have been extensively studied, with much of the work in the literature assuming that agents fully know their own preferences over alternatives. This assumption however is not always practical…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-03-21 Baharak Rastegari , Paul Goldberg , David Manlove

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that predictive models may benefit from algorithmic triage. Under algorithmic triage, a predictive model does not predict all instances but instead defers some of them to human experts. However, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-19 Nastaran Okati , Abir De , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-20 Skyler J. Cranmer , Bruce A. Desmarais

Many real-life contractual relations differ completely from the clean, static model at the heart of principal-agent theory. Typically, they involve repeated strategic interactions of the principal and agent, taking place under uncertainty…

We consider the problem of Adverse Selection and optimal derivative design within a Principal-Agent framework. The principal's income is exposed to non-hedgeable risk factors arising, for instance, from weather or climate phenomena. She…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-10-31 U. Horst , S. Moreno

The goal of this research is to develop agents that are adaptive and predictable and timely. At first blush, these three requirements seem contradictory. For example, adaptation risks introducing undesirable side effects, thereby making…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 D. F. Gordon

Transparency and explainability are important features that responsible autonomous vehicles should possess, particularly when interacting with humans, and causal reasoning offers a strong basis to provide these qualities. However, even if…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Rhys Howard , Nick Hawes , Lars Kunze

We study the problem of a planner who resolves risk-return trade-offs - like financial investment decisions - on behalf of a collective of agents with heterogeneous risk preferences. The planner's objective is a two-stage utility functional…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-25 Anne G. Balter , Nikolaus Schweizer

In the on-line Explore and Exploit literature, central to Machine Learning, a central planner is faced with a set of alternatives, each yielding some unknown reward. The planner's goal is to learn the optimal alternative as soon as…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-07-31 Gal Bahar , Rann Smorodinsky , Moshe Tennenholtz

This paper explores the utility of agent-based simulations in realistically modelling market structures and sheds light on the nuances of optimal dealer strategies. It underscores the contrast between conclusions drawn from probabilistic…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-12 Wladimir Ostrovsky

Results from clinical trials can be susceptible to bias if investigators choose their analysis approach after seeing trial data, as this can allow them to perform multiple analyses and then choose the method that provides the most…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Brennan C Kahan , Gordon Forbes , Suzie Cro

One of the main research areas in Artificial Intelligence is the coding of agents (programs) which are able to learn by themselves in any situation. This means that agents must be useful for purposes other than those they were created for,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-02-04 Javier Insa-Cabrera , Jose Hernandez-Orallo

This paper considers a network of agents, where each agent is assumed to take actions optimally with respect to a predefined payoff function involving the latest actions of the agent's neighbors. Neighborhood relationships stem from payoff…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Sadegh Arefizadeh , Sadjaad Ozgoli , Sadegh Bolouki , Tamer Başar

Principal-agent problems model scenarios where a principal incentivizes an agent to take costly, unobservable actions through the provision of payments. Such problems are ubiquitous in several real-world applications, ranging from…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Jiarui Gan , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

Many applications of intelligent systems require reasoning about the mental states of agents in the domain. We may want to reason about an agent's beliefs, including beliefs about other agents; we may also want to reason about an agent's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Brian Milch , Daphne Koller