Related papers: Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Eu…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heat waves and drought spells often coincide, leading to…
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…
Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…
Various regions in the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes have seen pronounced trends in upper-atmosphere summer circulation and surface temperature extremes over recent decades (since 1979). Several of these regional trends lie outside the…
We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Due to climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with western Europe experiencing the strongest trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Part of the temperature trends are caused by circulation changes, which…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…
We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…
General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop…
The relatively warm climate found in the North- Western Europe is due to the gulf stream that circulates warm saline water from southern latitudes to Europe. In North Atlantic ocean the stream gives out a large amount of heat, cools down…