Related papers: Individual Claims Reserving using Activation Patte…
Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…
Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…
The chain-ladder (CL) method is the most widely used claims reserving technique in non-life insurance. This manuscript introduces a novel approach to computing the CL reserves based on a fundamental restructuring of the data utilization for…
Disability insurance claims are often affected by lengthy reporting delays and adjudication processes. The classic multistate life insurance modeling framework is ill-suited to handle such information delays since the cash flow and…
We introduce an individual claims forecasting framework utilizing Bayesian mixture density networks that can be used for claims analytics tasks such as case reserving and triaging. The proposed approach enables incorporating claims…
Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this…
A common approach to the claims reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). Within this framework, the claims in different origin and development years are assumed to be independent variables. If this assumption is…
This paper addresses the identification of insurance models with multidimensional screening where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes a random damage and the possibility of several…
There are growing concerns for reserves estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims in actuarial sciences. In this paper, we propose a copula-based dependency model to capture the relationship between two main IBNR reserve…
The appropriate estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves is traditionally one of the most important task of actuaries working in casualty and property insurance. As certain claims are reported many years after their…
An intensive research sprang up for stochastic methods in insurance during the past years. To meet all future claims rising from policies, it is requisite to quantify the outstanding loss liabilities. Loss reserving methods based on…
Individual claims reserving has not yet become established in actuarial practice. We attribute this to the absence of a satisfactory methodology: existing approaches tend to be either overly complex or insufficiently flexible and robust for…
Outstanding claim liabilities are revised repeatedly as claims develop, yet most modern reserving models are trained as one-shot predictors and typically learn only from settled claims. We formulate individual claims reserving as a…
We propose an individual claims reserving model based on the conditional Aalen-Johansen estimator, as developed in Bladt and Furrer (2023b). In our approach, we formulate a multi-state problem, where the underlying variable is the…
Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…
In this paper, we address the identification and estimation of insurance models where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes random damages and allows for several claims, while insurers…
Claim frequency data in insurance records the number of claims on insurance policies during a finite period of time. Given that insurance companies operate with multiple lines of insurance business where the claim frequencies on different…
The paper proposes an original methodology for constructing quantitative statistical models based on multidimensional distribution functions constructed on the basis of the insurance companies' data on inshurance policies (including…
Traditionally, actuaries have used run-off triangles to estimate reserve ("macro" models, on agregated data). But it is possible to model payments related to individual claims. If those models provide similar estimations, we investigate…
We propose a stochastic model for claims reserving that captures dependence along development years within a single triangle. This dependence is of autoregressive form of order $p$ and is achieved through the use of latent variables. We…