Related papers: Individual Claims Reserving using Activation Patte…

In economic analysis, rational decision-makers often take actions to reduce their risk exposure. These actions include purchasing market insurance and implementing prevention measures to modify the shape of the loss distribution. Under the…

Weather parametric insurance relies on weather indices rather than actual loss assessments, enhancing claims efficiency, reducing moral hazard, and improving fairness. In the context of increasing climate change risks, despite growing…

It has been shown several times in the literature that telematics data collected in motor insurance help to better understand an insured's driving risk. Insurers that use this data reap several benefits, such as a better estimate of the…

The main purpose of this work is to derive a partial differential equation for the reserves of life insurance liabilities subject to stochastic interest rates where the benefits and premiums depend directly on changes in the interest rate…

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) tailor treatments according to individual patient characteristics. They can significantly improve patient care and are thus becoming increasingly popular. The data collected during randomized clinical…

The paper deals with the problem of controlling the state of industrial devices according to the readings of their sensors. The current methods rely on one approach to feature extraction in which the prediction occurs. We proposed a…

Neural scaling laws have garnered significant interest due to their ability to predict model performance as a function of increasing parameters, data, and compute. In this work, we propose a simple statistical ansatz based on memorization…

Actuaries use predictive modeling techniques to assess the loss cost on a contract as a function of observable risk characteristics. State-of-the-art statistical and machine learning methods are not well equipped to handle hierarchically…

Causal inference deals with identifying which random variables "cause" or control other random variables. Recent advances on the topic of causal inference based on tools from statistical estimation and machine learning have resulted in…

Random delays between the occurrence of accident events and the corresponding reporting times of insurance claims is a standard feature of insurance data. The time lag between the reporting and the processing of a claim depends on whether…

Datasets often incorporate various functional patterns related to different aspects or regimes, which are typically not equally present throughout the dataset. We propose a novel, general-purpose partitioning algorithm that utilizes…

Prediction of outstanding claims has been done via nonparametric models (chain ladder), semiparametric models (overdispersed poisson) or fully parametric models. In this paper, we propose models based on negative binomial distributions for…

This paper studies the robust reinsurance and investment games for competitive insurers. Model uncertainty is characterized by a class of equivalent probability measures. Each insurer is concerned with relative performance under the…

Index insurance is often proposed to reduce protection gaps, especially for emerging risks. Unlike traditional insurance, it bases compensation on a measurable index, enabling faster payouts and lower claim management costs. This approach…

At the core of the Ouroboros Model lies a self-referential recursive process with alternating phases of data acquisition and evaluation. Memory entries are organized in schemata. Activation at a time of part of a schema biases the whole…

Extant literature on fair pricing methods for actuarial contexts has primarily focused on the regression setting. While such approaches are well-suited to short-term products, it is unclear how they generalize to long-term products, whose…

Survival function estimation is used in many disciplines, but it is most common in medical analytics in the form of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Sensitive data (patient records) is used in the estimation without any explicit control on the…

We introduce an extension to Merton's famous continuous time model of optimal consumption and investment, in the spirit of previous works by Pliska and Ye, to allow for a wage earner to have a random lifetime and to use a portion of the…

Safe planning of an autonomous agent in interactive environments -- such as the control of a self-driving vehicle among pedestrians -- poses a major challenge as the behavior of the environment is unknown and reactive to the behavior of the…

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has posed significant challenges to society, necessitating the urgent development of effective risk management strategies. From the early informal community-based risk sharing mechanisms to…