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In this paper, we employ a Bayesian approach to uncertainty quantification of computer simulations used to assess the probability of rare events. As a case study, we assess the reliability of an Earth reentry capsule for sample return…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-11 Dawn L. Sanderson , Amy Braverman , Giuseppe Cataldo , Ralph C. Smith , Richard L. Smith

Reliability prediction is crucial for ensuring the safety and security of software systems, especially in the context of industry practices. While various metrics and measurements are employed to assess software reliability, the complexity…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Dapeng Yan , Wenjie Yang , Kui Liu , Zhiming Liu , Zhikuang Cai

This short paper describes a numerical method for optimising the conservative confidence bound on the reliability of a system based on tests of its individual components. This is an alternative to the algorithmic approaches identified in…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Peter Bishop , Andrey Povyakalo

Software testing is a critical element of software quality assurance and represents the ultimate review of specification, design and coding. Software testing is the process of testing the functionality and correctness of software by running…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2010-01-26 S. S. Riaz Ahamed

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Arman Oganisian

As control systems become increasingly more complex, there exists a pressing need to find systematic ways of verifying them. To address this concern, there has been significant work in developing test generation schemes for black-box…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-29 Prithvi Akella , Ugo Rosolia , Andrew Singletary , Aaron D. Ames

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-12-09 Jochen Bröcker

Testing for conditional independence is a core aspect of constraint-based causal discovery. Although commonly used tests are perfect in theory, they often fail to reject independence in practice, especially when conditioning on multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-13 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Jiafeng Chen

Software testing is aimed to improve the delivered reliability of the users. Delivered reliability is the reliability of using the software after it is delivered to the users. Usually the software consists of many modules. Thus, the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2017-01-17 Ping Cao , Zhao Dong , Ke Liu , Kai-Yuan Cai

Assessment of replicability is critical to ensure the quality and rigor of scientific research. In this paper, we discuss inference and modeling principles for replicability assessment. Targeting distinct application scenarios, we propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Yi Zhao , Xiaoquan Wen

Testability is the probability whether tests will detect a fault, given that a fault in the program exists. How efficiently the faults will be uncovered depends upon the testability of the software. Various researchers have proposed…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2013-08-16 Sujata Khatri , R. S. Chhillar , V. B. Singh

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Edward Chen , Han Bao , Tate Shorthill , Carl Elks , Athira Varma Jayakumar , Nam Dinh

Dependability is an umbrella concept that subsumes many key properties about a system, including reliability, maintainability, safety, availability, confidentiality, and integrity. Various dependability modeling techniques have been…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2016-06-23 Waqar Ahmed , Osman Hasan , Sofiene Tahar

Nonlinear, adaptive, or otherwise complex control techniques are increasingly relied upon to ensure the safety of systems operating in uncertain environments. However, the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system complicates…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-01-17 John F. Quindlen , Ufuk Topcu , Girish Chowdhary , Jonathan P. How

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-24 T. Gessey-Jones , W. J. Handley

There is an urgent societal need to assess whether autonomous vehicles (AVs) are safe enough. From published quantitative safety and reliability assessments of AVs, we know that, given the goal of predicting very low rates of accidents,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Xingyu Zhao , Valentin Robu , David Flynn , Kizito Salako , Lorenzo Strigini

Multi-agent, collaborative sensor fusion is a vital component of a multi-national intelligence toolkit. In safety-critical and/or contested environments, adversaries may infiltrate and compromise a number of agents. We analyze state of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-26 R. Spencer Hallyburton , Miroslav Pajic

We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Context: Expert judgement is a common method for software effort estimations in practice today. Estimators are often shown extra obsolete requirements together with the real ones to be implemented. Only one previous study has been conducted…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Lucas Gren , Richard Berntsson Svensson