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In early-phase cancer clinical trials, the limited availability of data presents significant challenges in developing a framework to efficiently quantify treatment effectiveness. To address this, we propose a novel utility-based Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Saurabh Bhandari , Michael J. Daniels , Chenguang Wang

Disagreement remains on what the target estimand should be for population-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons. This debate is of central importance for policy-makers and applied practitioners in health technology assessment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Antonio Remiro-Azócar

A draft addendum to ICH E9 has been released for public consultation in August 2017. The addendum focuses on two topics particularly relevant for randomized confirmatory clinical trials: estimands and sensitivity analyses. The need to amend…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-17 Kaspar Rufibach

A common concern in non-inferiority (NI) trials is that non adherence due, for example, to poor study conduct can make treatment arms artificially similar. Because intention to treat analyses can be anti-conservative in this situation, per…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 Katy E Morgan , Ian R White , Clémence Leyrat , Simon Stanworth , Brennan C Kahan

In studies of discrimination, researchers often seek to estimate a causal effect of race or gender on outcomes. For example, in the criminal justice context, one might ask whether arrested individuals would have been subsequently charged or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Johann Gaebler , William Cai , Guillaume Basse , Ravi Shroff , Sharad Goel , Jennifer Hill

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

There has been an increasing use of master protocols in oncology clinical trials because of its efficiency and flexibility to accelerate cancer drug development. Depending on the study objective and design, a master protocol trial can be a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-13 Jie Chen , Xiaoyun , Li , Chengxing , Lu , Sammy Yuan , Godwin Yung , Jingjing Ye , Hong Tian , Jianchang Lin

Learning about causal effects in target populations and their subsets may be facilitated by combining information from multiple sources. One major class of study designs that combine information involves appending an index study with data…

Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are the gold standard for evaluation of the efficacy and safety of investigational interventions. If every patient in an RCT were to adhere to the randomized treatment, one could simply analyze the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-08 Yongming Qu , Linda Shurzinske , Shanthi Sethuraman

A platform trial is an innovative clinical trial design that uses a master protocol to evaluate multiple treatments, where patients are often assigned to different subsets of treatment arms based on individual characteristics, enrollment…

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

The use of patient-level information from previous studies, registries, and other external datasets can support the analysis of single-arm and randomized controlled trials to evaluate and test experimental treatments. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Gopal Kotecha , Daniel E. Schwartz , Steffen Ventz , Lorenzo Trippa

Policy-makers are often faced with the task of distributing a limited supply of resources. To support decision-making in these settings, statisticians are confronted with two challenges: estimands are defined by allocation strategies that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Aaron L. Sarvet , Julien D. Laurendeau , Mats J. Stensrud

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

In failure-time settings, a competing risk event is any event that makes it impossible for the event of interest to occur. For example, cardiovascular disease death is a competing event for prostate cancer death because an individual cannot…

The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Benedikt Höltgen , Robert C. Williamson

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Feature selection is an important problem in machine learning, which aims to select variables that lead to an optimal predictive model. In this paper, we focus on feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Sofia Triantafillou , Fattaneh Jabbari , Greg Cooper

Longitudinal observational patient data can be used to investigate the causal effects of time-varying treatments on time-to-event outcomes. Several methods have been developed for controlling for the time-dependent confounding that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-08 Ruth H. Keogh , Jon Michael Gran , Shaun R. Seaman , Gwyneth Davies , Stijn Vansteelandt