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Longitudinal cohort studies, which follow a group of individuals over time, provide the opportunity to examine causal effects of complex exposures on long-term health outcomes. Utilizing data from multiple cohorts has the potential to add…

Estimands can help to clarify the research questions being addressed in randomised trials. Because the choice of estimand can affect how relevant trial results are to patients and other stakeholders, such as clinicians or policymakers, it…

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Sahil Shikalgar , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Estimands can help clarify the interpretation of treatment effects and ensure that estimators are aligned to the study's objectives. Cluster randomised trials require additional attributes to be defined within the estimand compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Brennan C Kahan , Bryan Blette , Michael Harhay , Scott Halpern , Vipul Jairath , Andrew Copas , Fan Li

Intensity-based multistate models provide a useful framework for characterizing disease processes, the introduction of interventions, loss to follow-up, and other complications arising in the conduct of randomized trials studying complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-29 Alexandra Bühler , Richard J. Cook , Jerald F. Lawless

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Commonly, AI or machine learning (ML) models are evaluated on benchmark datasets. This practice supports innovative methodological research, but benchmark performance can be poorly correlated with performance in real-world applications -- a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Olivier Binette , Jerome P. Reiter

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

It has recently become popular to define treatment effects for subsets of the target population characterized by variables not observable at the time a treatment decision is made. Characterizing and estimating such treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-30 Marshall M. Joffe , Dylan Small , Chi-Yuan Hsu

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

In this article, we develop nonparametric inference methods for comparing survival data across two samples, which are beneficial for clinical trials of novel cancer therapies where long-term survival is a critical outcome. These therapies,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Yi-Cheng Tai , Weijing Wang , Martin T. Wells

Adaptive enrichment allows for pre-defined patient subgroups of interest to be investigated throughout the course of a clinical trial. Many trials which measure a long-term time-to-event endpoint often also routinely collect repeated…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-26 Abigail J. Burdon , Richard D. Baird , Thomas Jaki

In placebo-controlled randomized trials, the post-randomization use of concomitant medications may be higher in the placebo arm than in the treatment arm. This may dilute the full benefits of the randomized drug as estimated by the…

There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Kelly Van Lancker , Frank Bretz , Oliver Dukes

The analysis of randomized controlled trials is often complicated by intercurrent events (IEs) -- events that occur after treatment initiation and affect either the interpretation or existence of outcome measurements. Examples include…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Sizhu Lu , Yanyao Yi , Yongming Qu , Huayu Karen Liu , Ting Ye , Peng Ding

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

Regression analyses based on transformations of cumulative incidence functions are often adopted when modeling and testing for treatment effects in clinical trial settings involving competing and semi-competing risks. Common frameworks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-11 Alexandra Bühler , Richard J Cook , Jerald F Lawless

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-11 Devin Incerti , Michael T Bretscher , Ray Lin , Chris Harbron