Related papers: Pitching strategy evaluation via stratified analys…
Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called…
We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside…
Each ballpark has a different size in baseball. It could be easily imagined that there would be many home runs in a small ballpark. Moreover, the environment of the ballpark, such as altitude, humidity, air pressure, and wind strength,…
The infield shift has been increasingly used as a defensive strategy in baseball in recent years. Along with the upward trend in its usage, the notoriety of the shift has grown, as it is believed to be responsible for the recent decline in…
The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…
Posture-based mental state inference has significant potential in diagnosing fatigue, preventing injury, and enhancing performance across various domains. Such tools must be research-validated with large datasets before being translated…
We present a tractable framework for detecting changes in performance metrics and apply these methods to Major League Baseball (MLB) batting and pitching data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons. We propose a changepoint detection algorithm that…
In 2024, Major League Baseball released new bat tracking data, reporting swing-by-swing bat speed and swing length measured at the point of contact. While exciting, the data present challenges for their interpretation. The timing of the…
Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career…
In baseball, every play on the field is quantitatively evaluated and has an effect on individual and team strategies. The weighted on base average (wOBA) is well known as a measure of an batter's hitting contribution. However, this measure…
Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…
We develop the SEAM (synthetic estimated average matchup) method for describing batter versus pitcher matchups in baseball. We first estimate the distribution of balls put into play by a batter facing a pitcher, called the empirical spray…
From 2020 to 2023, Major League Baseball changed rules affecting team composition, player positioning, and game time. Understanding the effects of these rules is crucial for leagues, teams, players, and other relevant parties to assess…
Optimal propensity score matching has emerged as one of the most ubiquitous approaches for causal inference studies on observational data; However, outstanding critiques of the statistical properties of propensity score matching have cast…
The use of statistical modeling in baseball has received substantial attention recently in both the media and academic community. We focus on a relatively under-explored topic: the use of statistical models for the analysis of fielding…
Since the advent of high-resolution pitch tracking data (PITCHf/x), many in the sabermetrics community have attempted to quantify a Major League Baseball catcher's ability to "frame" a pitch (i.e. increase the chance that a pitch is called…
Propensity score weighting approaches have been widely implemented in clinical research to estimate the effects of a treatment or exposure while mitigating the risk of confounding in the absence of random assignment. In practice, when…
We present an algorithm for learning the intrinsic value of a batted ball in baseball. This work addresses the fundamental problem of separating the value of a batted ball at contact from factors such as the defense, weather, and ballpark…
Standard measures of batting performance such as a batting average and an on-base percentage can be decomposed into component rates such as strikeout rates and home run rates. The likelihood of hitting data for a group of players can be…