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The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is applied in several countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We consider discrete-time SEIR epidemic model in a closed system which does not…
The outbreak of COVID-19, beginning in 2019 and continuing through the time of writing, has led to renewed interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious disease. Recent works have focused on partial differential equation (PDE) models,…
Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…
As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, reliable prediction plays an important role for policy making. The classical infectious disease model SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) is a compact yet simplistic temporal model. The…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…
The current COVID-19 global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 betacoronavirus has resulted in over a million deaths and is having a grave socio-economic impact, hence there is an urgency to find solutions to key research challenges. Much of…
For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…
Data-driven deep learning provides efficient algorithms for parameter identification of epidemiology models. Unlike the constant parameters, the complexity of identifying time-varying parameters is largely increased. In this paper, a…
Nonstationary non-Gaussian spatial data are common in many disciplines, including climate science, ecology, epidemiology, and social sciences. Examples include count data on disease incidence and binary satellite data on cloud mask…
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…
We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…
The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such…
The study carries out predictive modeling based on publicly available COVID-19 data for the duration 01 April to 20 June 2020 pertaining to India and five of its most infected states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
In this article, we construct a numerical method for a stochastic version of the Susceptible Infected Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, expressed by a suitable stochastic differential equation (SDE), by using the semi-discrete method to a…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…