Related papers: Differentially Private Learning of Hawkes Processe…
The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…
Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…
In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…
Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…
This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…
We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…
Training reliable deep learning models which avoid making overconfident but incorrect predictions is a longstanding challenge. This challenge is further exacerbated when learning has to be differentially private: protection provided to…
We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…
The Hawkes process is used to model point process data where events occur in clusters and bursts. In a standard multivariate Hawkes process, every event that occurs in a dimension has an equal impact on the process intensity. However, this…
We propose a novel adversarial learning strategy for mixture models of Hawkes processes, leveraging data augmentation techniques of Hawkes process in the framework of self-paced learning. Instead of learning a mixture model directly from a…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…
Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…
Student procrastination and cramming for deadlines are major challenges in online learning environments, with negative educational and well-being side effects. Modeling student activities in continuous time and predicting their next study…
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…