Related papers: Differentially Private Learning of Hawkes Processe…
Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…
Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…
This study explores the application of Hawkes processes to model high-frequency data in the context of limit order books. Two distinct Hawkes-based models are proposed and analyzed: one utilizing exponential kernels and the other employing…
The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…
We provide a differentially private algorithm for hypothesis selection. Given samples from an unknown probability distribution $P$ and a set of $m$ probability distributions $\mathcal{H}$, the goal is to output, in a…
We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
We establish the asymptotic validity of frequency-domain inference for stationary multivariate Hawkes processes under mild conditions, bridging the gap between theory and application. By developing upper-bounds on the reduced cumulant…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…
Event history data from sports competitions have recently drawn increasing attention in sports analytics to generate data-driven strategies. Such data often exhibit self-excitation in the event occurrence and dependence within event…
Differential privacy provides strong privacy guarantees for machine learning applications. Much recent work has been focused on developing differentially private models, however there has been a gap in other stages of the machine learning…
Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection…
Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…
In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
In order to both learn and protect sensitive training data, there has been a growing interest in privacy preserving machine learning methods. Differential privacy has emerged as an important measure of privacy. We are interested in the…
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…
Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures affecting more than 70 million people worldwide. Often, an individual with epilepsy is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure, a…