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Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental problem in the analysis and interpretation of synthetic control (SC) methods. We develop conditional prediction intervals in the SC framework, and provide conditions under which these intervals…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Rocio Titiunik

To understand the computations of our visual system, it is important to understand also the natural environment it evolved to interpret. Unfortunately, existing models of the visual environment are either unrealistic or too complex for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-03-16 Xaq Pitkow

We propose a new statistical hypothesis testing framework which decides visually, using confidence intervals, whether the means of two samples are equal or if one is larger than the other. With our method, the user can at the same time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Timothée Mathieu

We present an interactive visualization system for exploring the coverage in sensor networks with uncertain sensor locations. We consider a simple case of uncertainty where the location of each sensor is confined to a discrete number of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-10-20 Tim Sodergren , Jessica Hair , Jeff M. Phillips , Bei Wang

Contemporary tasks of complex system simulation are often related to the issue of uncertainty management. It comes from the lack of information or knowledge about the simulated system as well as from restrictions of the model set being…

Sensitivity analyses of simulation ensembles determine how simulation parameters influence the simulation's outcome. Commonly, one global numerical sensitivity value is computed per simulation parameter. However, when considering 3D spatial…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Marina Evers , Simon Leistikow , Hennes Rave , Lars Linsen

Critical point tracking is a core topic in scientific visualization for understanding the dynamic behavior of time-varying vector field data. The topological notion of robustness has been introduced recently to quantify the structural…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Lin Yan , Paul Aaron Ullrich , Luke P. Van Roekel , Bei Wang , Hanqi Guo

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

The phenomenon of solidification of a substance from its liquid phase is of the greatest practical and theoretical importance, and atomistic simulations can provide precious information towards its understanding and control. Unfortunately,…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2021-03-25 Tarak Karmakar , Michele Invernizzi , Valerio Rizzi , Michele Parrinello

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

When machine learning supports decision-making in safety-critical systems, it is important to verify and understand the reasons why a particular output is produced. Although feature importance calculation approaches assist in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Divish Rengasamy , Benjamin Rothwell , Grazziela Figueredo

As data-driven intelligent systems advance, the need for reliable and transparent decision-making mechanisms has become increasingly important. Therefore, it is essential to integrate uncertainty quantification and model explainability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke

In urgent decision making applications, ensemble simulations are an important way to determine different outcome scenarios based on currently available data. In this paper, we will analyze the output of ensemble simulations by considering…

Graphics · Computer Science 2019-10-21 Max Kontak , Jules Vidal , Julien Tierny

Data analysis in high-dimensional spaces aims at obtaining a synthetic description of a data set, revealing its main structure and its salient features. We here introduce an approach providing this description in the form of a topography of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-02 Maria d'Errico , Elena Facco , Alessandro Laio , Alex Rodriguez

Topological data analysis (TDA), while abstract, allows a characterization of time-series data obtained from nonlinear and complex dynamical systems. Though it is surprising that such an abstract measure of structure - counting pieces and…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2020-01-07 Nicole Sanderson , Elliott Shugerman , Samantha Molnar , James D. Meiss , Elizabeth Bradley

Given a computer model of a physical object, it is often quite difficult to visualize and quantify any global effects on the shape representation caused by local uncertainty and local errors in the data. This problem is further amplified…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2009-10-22 Chandrajit Bajaj , Andrew Gillette , Samrat Goswami , Bong June Kwon , Jose Rivera

We propose a method for visualizing uncertain set systems, which differs from previous set visualization approaches that are based on certainty (an element either belongs to a set or not). Our method is inspired by storyline visualizations…

Clustering algorithms are one of the main analytical methods to detect patterns in unlabeled data. Existing clustering methods typically treat samples in a dataset as points in a metric space and compute distances to group together similar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Tarek Naous , Srinjay Sarkar , Abubakar Abid , James Zou

Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…

Graphics · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Mingzhe Li , Peer Nowack , Bei Wang

Symbolic regression is a nonlinear regression method which is commonly performed by an evolutionary computation method such as genetic programming. Quantification of uncertainty of regression models is important for the interpretation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-15 Fabricio Olivetti de Franca , Gabriel Kronberger