Related papers: Sparse Bayesian State-Space and Time-Varying Param…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
We study linear models under heavy-tailed priors from a probabilistic viewpoint. Instead of computing a single sparse most probable (MAP) solution as in standard deterministic approaches, the focus in the Bayesian compressed sensing…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…
This paper presents the use of spike-and-slab (SS) priors for discovering governing differential equations of motion of nonlinear structural dynamic systems. The problem of discovering governing equations is cast as that of selecting…
We develop a Bayesian methodology aimed at simultaneously estimating low-rank and row-sparse matrices in a high-dimensional multiple-response linear regression model. We consider a carefully devised shrinkage prior on the matrix of…
Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) on large datasets has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the underlying methods are generally limited to relatively simple settings where the data have specific forms of…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate…
We consider Bayesian linear regression with sparsity-inducing prior and design efficient sampling algorithms leveraging posterior contraction properties. A quasi-likelihood with Gaussian spike-and-slab (that is favorable both statistically…
Variable selection for structured covariates lying on an underlying known graph is a problem motivated by practical applications, and has been a topic of increasing interest. However, most of the existing methods may not be scalable to high…
The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…
We incorporate a version of a spike and slab prior, comprising a pointmass at zero ("spike") and a Normal distribution around zero ("slab") into a dynamic panel data framework to model coefficient heterogeneity. In addition to homogeneity…
We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…
Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new…
In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…
This paper extends the idea of decoupling shrinkage and sparsity for continuous priors to Bayesian Quantile Regression (BQR). The procedure follows two steps: In the first step, we shrink the quantile regression posterior through state of…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
This paper is a note on the use of Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous time series. We identify a key requirement for such models, and then establish that there is a single type of model which meets this requirement. As it…
Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. We study a mean-field spike and slab VB approximation of widely used Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional…
We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived…