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The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
Multivariate matched proportions (MMP) data appears in a variety of contexts including post-market surveillance of adverse events in pharmaceuticals, disease classification, and agreement between care providers. It consists of multiple sets…
Variable selection in the linear regression model takes many apparent faces from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. In this paper we introduce a variable selection method referred to as a rescaled spike and slab model. We study the…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches as a means to dealing…
Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…
Variable selection is a classic problem in statistics. In this paper, we consider a Bayes variable selection problem based on spike-and-slab prior with mixed normal distribution proposed by Ro\v{c}kov\'a and George (2014). Motivated by…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
We propose a novel sparse tensor decomposition method, namely Tensor Truncated Power (TTP) method, that incorporates variable selection into the estimation of decomposition components. The sparsity is achieved via an efficient truncation…
We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…
Markovian population models are suitable abstractions to describe well-mixed interacting particle systems in situation where stochastic fluctuations are significant due to the involvement of low copy particles. In molecular biology,…
Longitudinal data analysis is fundamental for understanding dynamic processes in biomedical and social sciences. Although varying coefficient models (VCMs) provide a flexible framework by allowing covariate effects to evolve over time,…
This article introduces a nonparametric approach to multivariate time-varying power spectrum analysis. The procedure adaptively partitions a time series into an unknown number of approximately stationary segments, where some spectral…
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…
Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…
In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling sparse time-varying networks. A positive parameter is associated to each node of a network, which models the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to…
Nonparametric varying coefficient (NVC) models are useful for modeling time-varying effects on responses that are measured repeatedly for the same subjects. When the number of covariates is moderate or large, it is desirable to perform…
Many modern time series arise on networks, where each component is attached to a node and interactions follow observed edges. Classical time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) treat all series symmetrically and ignore this structure, while…
Undirected graphical models are applied in genomics, protein structure prediction, and neuroscience to identify sparse interactions that underlie discrete data. Although Bayesian methods for inference would be favorable in these contexts,…
Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…