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Tail risk protection is in the focus of the financial industry and requires solid mathematical and statistical tools, especially when a trading strategy is derived. Recent hype driven by machine learning (ML) mechanisms has raised the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-25 Bruno Spilak , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We consider the upper and lower tail probabilities for the centered (by time$/24$) and scaled (according to KPZ time$^{1/3}$ scaling) one-point distribution of the Cole-Hopf solution of the KPZ equation when started with initial data drawn…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-04 Ivan Corwin , Promit Ghosal

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Sam Allen , Jonathan Koh , Johan Segers , Johanna Ziegel

This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 john cotter , kevin dowd

Consider a Lamperti-Kiu Markov additive process $(J_t,\xi_t:t\geq0)$ on $\{+,-\}\times\mathbb{R}\cup\infty$ where $J$ is the modulating Markov chain component. First, we study the finiteness of the exponential functional and then consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Larbi Alili , David Woodford

Recent achievements in the heavy quark theory are critically reviewed. The emphasis is put on those aspects which either did not attract enough attention or cause heated debates in the current literature. Among other topics we discuss (i)…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-11-26 I. Bigi , M. Shifman , N. Uraltsev

Minkowski sums are of theoretical interest and have applications in fields related to industrial backgrounds. In this paper we focus on the specific case of summing polytopes as we want to solve the tolerance analysis problem described in…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Vincent Delos , Denis Teissandier

We consider a generalized discrete $\phi^4$ model and demonstrate that it can support exact moving kink solutions in the form of tanh with an arbitrarily large velocity. The constructed exact moving solutions are dependent on the specific…

Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems · Physics 2008-11-26 Sergey V. Dmitriev , Avinash Khare , Panayotis G. Kevrekidis , Avadh Saxena , Ljupco Hadzievski

In this paper we present an elementary derivation of the semi-classical spectrum of neutral particles in a field theory with kink excitations. In the non-integrable cases, we show that each vacuum state cannot generically support more than…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2008-11-26 Giuseppe Mussardo

We demonstrate that distributions of human response times have power-law tails and, among closed-form distributions, are best fit by the generalized inverse gamma distribution. We speculate that the task difficulty tracks the half-width of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-29 Tao Ma , John G. Holden , R. A. Serota

We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng

In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains "Black Swan"…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-09 Nassim N. Taleb

We study the late-time behavior of spherically symmetric solutions of the Yang-Mills equations on Minkowski and Schwarzschild backgrounds. Using nonlinear perturbation theory we show in both cases that solutions having smooth compactly…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2010-11-02 Piotr Bizoń , Tadeusz Chmaj , Andrzej Rostworowski

In this note we reconsider the late-time, power-law decay rate of scalar fields in a Kerr space-time background. We implement a number of mathematical and computational enhancements to our time-domain, (2+1)D Teukolsky evolution code and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-01-20 Tyler Spilhaus , Gaurav Khanna

We propose an analytically solvable sextic potential model with non-trivial soliton solutions connecting the trivial vacua. The model does not respect parity symmetry, and like $\phi^4$ theory has two minima. The soliton solutions and the…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2020-06-30 André Amado , Azadeh Mohammadi

Dynamics of sine-Gordon kinks in the presence of rapidly varying periodic perturbations of different physical origins is described analytically and numerically. The analytical approach is based on asymptotic expansions, and it allows to…

We demonstrate both analytically and numerically that the existing methods for measuring tail dependence in copulas may sometimes underestimate the extent of extreme co-movements of dependent risks and, therefore, may not always comply with…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Edward Furman , Jianxi Su , Ričardas Zitikis

We study the elasticity of the collision of two kinks with an incoming low speed $v\in (0,1)$ for the nonlinear wave equation in dimension $1+1$ known as the $\phi^{6}$ model. We prove for any $k\in\mathbb{N}$ that if the incoming speed $v$…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Abdon Moutinho

Solutions to linear controlled differential equations can be expressed in terms of iterated path integrals of the driving path. This collection of iterated integrals encodes essentially all information about the driving path. While upper…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2019-05-29 Horatio Boedihardjo , Xi Geng , Nikolaos P. Souris

The literature of heavy tails (typically) starts with a random walk and finds mechanisms that lead to fat tails under aggregation. We follow the inverse route and show how starting with fat tails we get to thin-tails when deriving the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-30 Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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