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Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Leonardo Cella , Ryan Martin

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-25 Vladimir Vovk

We describe a data-efficient, kernel-based approach to statistical testing of conditional independence. A major challenge of conditional independence testing is to obtain the correct test level (the specified upper bound on the rate of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Roman Pogodin , Antonin Schrab , Yazhe Li , Danica J. Sutherland , Arthur Gretton

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

For predictive evaluation based on quasi-posterior distributions, we develop a new information criterion, the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC. PCIC generalises the widely applicable information criterion WAIC so as to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Yukito Iba , Keisuke Yano

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is a core technique in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), widely used to interpret model decisions and suggest actionable alternatives. This work presents a structure-aware and robustness-oriented…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Zhan-Yi Liao , Jaewon Yoo , Hao-Tsung Yang , Po-An Chen

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Multimodal affective computing aims to predict humans' sentiment, emotion, intention, and opinion using language, acoustic, and visual modalities. However, current models often learn spurious correlations that harm generalization under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Sijie Mai , Shiqin Han

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

Conditional independence (CI) testing arises naturally in many scientific problems and applications domains. The goal of this problem is to investigate the conditional independence between a response variable $Y$ and another variable $X$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Adel Javanmard , Mohammad Mehrabi

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Assessing the importance of individual features in Machine Learning is critical to understand the model's decision-making process. While numerous methods exist, the lack of a definitive ground truth for comparison highlights the need for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Eddie Conti , Álvaro Parafita , Axel Brando

Informally, a 'spurious correlation' is the dependence of a model on some aspect of the input data that an analyst thinks shouldn't matter. In machine learning, these have a know-it-when-you-see-it character; e.g., changing the gender of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Victor Veitch , Alexander D'Amour , Steve Yadlowsky , Jacob Eisenstein

Many tools exist to detect dependence between random variables, a core question across a wide range of machine learning, statistical, and scientific endeavors. Although several statistical tests guarantee eventual detection of any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Nathaniel Xu , Feng Liu , Danica J. Sutherland

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

We consider an empirical likelihood framework for inference for a statistical model based on an informative sampling design. Covariate information is incorporated both through the weights and the estimating equations. The estimator is based…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-03 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Mark S. Handcock

The standard constraint-based paradigm for causal discovery with incomplete data -- impute first, test second -- is frequently miscalibrated: any consistent conditional independence (CI) test rejects a true null with probability approaching…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Thomas S. Robinson , Ranjit Lall

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang