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Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Data-driven inference was recently introduced as a protocol that, upon the input of a set of data, outputs a mathematical description for a physical device able to explain the data. The device so inferred is automatically self-consistent,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-12-10 Michele Dall'Arno , Asaph Ho , Francesco Buscemi , Valerio Scarani

As a useful and efficient alternative to generic model-based control scheme, data-driven predictive control is subject to bias-variance trade-off and is known to not perform desirably in face of uncertainty. Through the connection between…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-26 Malika Sader , Yibo Wang , Dexian Huang , Chao Shang , Biao Huang

Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is the bread and butter of system inference for stochastic systems. In some generality, MLE will converge to the correct model in the infinite data limit. In the context of physical approaches to system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-11 Junghyo Jo , Danh-Tai Hoang , Vipul Periwal

This paper presents a simulation free framework for solving reliability analysis problems. The method proposed is rooted in a recently developed deep learning approach, referred to as the physics-informed neural network. The primary idea is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Souvik Chakraborty

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-04-11 Justin Alsing , Benjamin Wandelt , Stephen Feeney

In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Samuel N. Cohen

Uncertain information on input parameters of reliability models is usually modeled by considering these parameters as random, and described by marginal distributions and a dependence structure of these variables. In numerous real-world…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-30 Nazih Benoumechiara , Bertrand Michel , Philippe Saint-Pierre , Nicolas Bousquet

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for tackling complex regression and classification tasks, yet its success often hinges on the quality of training data. This study introduces an ML paradigm inspired by domain knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Mohsen Rashki

Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-04-18 Adam Rupe , Velimir V. Vesselinov , James P. Crutchfield

We consider an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations when some components of the random observations are subject to missingness. As the nature of the estimating equations is wide-ranging, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-05 Dong Wang , Song Xi Chen

This paper explores the role of generalized continuum mechanics, and the feasibility of model-free data-driven computing approaches thereof, in solids undergoing failure by strain localization. Specifically, we set forth a methodology for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-05 Jacinto Ulloa , Laurent Stainier , Michael Ortiz , José E. Andrade

Simulation-based optimal design techniques are a convenient tool for solving a particular class of optimal design problems. The goal is to find the optimal configuration of factor settings with respect to an expected utility criterion. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-21 Markus Hainy , Werner G. Müller , Helga Wagner

When the underlying conditional density is known, conditional expectations can be computed analytically or numerically. When, however, such knowledge is not available and instead we are given a collection of training data, the goal of this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-19 George V. Moustakides

We present a new data-driven paradigm for variational brittle fracture mechanics. The fracture-related material modeling assumptions are removed and the governing equations stemming from variational principles are combined with a set of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-09-11 Pietro Carrara , Laura De Lorenzis , Laurent Stainier , Michael Ortiz

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

A variety of methods have been proposed for inference about extreme dependence for multivariate or spatially-indexed stochastic processes and time series. Most of these proceed by first transforming data to some specific extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-22 James E. Johndrow , Robert L. Wolpert

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-27 Michael J. Plank , Matthew J. Simpson

Likelihood-free inference is concerned with the estimation of the parameters of a non-differentiable stochastic simulator that best reproduce real observations. In the absence of a likelihood function, most of the existing inference methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-03 Arthur Pesah , Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe

Data-driven constitutive modeling is an emerging field in computational solid mechanics with the prospect of significantly relieving the computational costs of hierarchical computational methods. Traditionally, these surrogates have been…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-04-20 Jan Niklas Fuhg , Nikolaos Bouklas