Related papers: Precipitation efficiency amplifies climate sensiti…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…
Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, and the roles…
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…
Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…
To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most…
In this paper we derive a new formula for the global temperature change and major feedback portions in the climate response. In our earlier paper we calculated from the experimental values the sensitivity about ${\rm 0.058~K/(W/m^2)}$. This…
With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…
The product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation rate has previously been used as a proxy for cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash counts in climate change applications. Here the ability of this proxy, denoted…
The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in climate simulations. For exoplanets, cloud simulation is particularly challenging because of the lack of observational data to tune parameterized cloud models. Here we apply Community Aerosol…
Radiative effects of water ice clouds have noteworthy consequences on the Martian atmosphere, its thermal structure and circulation. Accordingly, the inclusion of such effects in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) greatly modifies the…
Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…
Cloud microphysical parameterizations in atmospheric models describe the formation and evolution of clouds and precipitation, a central weather and climate process. Cloud-associated latent heating is a primary driver of large and…
Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…
Results of direct numerical simulations have been used to show that intensive thermal convection in a horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be described by the distributed chaos approach. The vorticity and helicity dominated distributed…
Moist convection plays a leading role in the dynamics and energy budget of Earth's tropics and influences the sensitivity of Earth's climate to greenhouse gas increases. Because individual convective cells are much smaller than the…
While it is expected that the large-scale tropical circulation should undergo some changes in a warmer climate, it remains an open question whether its characteristic features, such as the Hadley cell, the intertropical convergence zone, or…