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Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…

General Economics · Economics 2020-11-16 Hamidreza Arian , Hossein Poorvasei , Azin Sharifi , Shiva Zamani

Multiwinner voting rules are used to select a small representative subset of candidates or items from a larger set given the preferences of voters. However, if candidates have sensitive attributes such as gender or ethnicity (when selecting…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-06-20 L. Elisa Celis , Lingxiao Huang , Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

In machine learning (ML) verification, the majority of procedures are non-quantitative and therefore cannot be used for verifying probabilistic models, or be applied in domains where hard guarantees are practically unachievable. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Paolo Morettin , Andrea Passerini , Roberto Sebastiani

We consider the problem of state estimation in dynamical systems and propose a different mechanism for handling unmodeled system uncertainties. Instead of injecting random process noise, we assign different weights to measurements so that…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-08 Yaron Shulami , Daniel Sigalov

Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-05-04 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou , Mark Kirstein , Yonatan Berman

We study the problem of identifying the set of \emph{active} variables, termed in the literature as \emph{variable selection} or \emph{multiple hypothesis testing}, depending on the pursued criteria. For a general \emph{robust setting} of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-24 Eduard Belitser , Nurzhan Nurushev

Penalized regression models are popularly used in high-dimensional data analysis to conduct variable selection and model fitting simultaneously. Whereas success has been widely reported in literature, their performances largely depend on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-16 Wei Sun , Junhui Wang , Yixin Fang

Algorithmic stability is a central notion in learning theory that quantifies the sensitivity of an algorithm to small changes in the training data. If a learning algorithm satisfies certain stability properties, this leads to many important…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-01 Yuetian Luo , Rina Foygel Barber

Fair predictive algorithms hinge on both equality and trust, yet inherent uncertainty in real-world data challenges our ability to make consistent, fair, and calibrated decisions. While fairly managing predictive error has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Lucas Rosenblatt , R. Teal Witter

One of the most important queries in knowledge compilation is weighted model counting (WMC), which has been applied to probabilistic inference on various models, such as Bayesian networks. In practical situations on inference tasks, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Kengo Nakamura , Masaaki Nishino , Norihito Yasuda

We analyse optimal voting weights in two-tier voting systems. In our model, the overall population (or union) is split in groups (or member states) of different sizes. The individuals comprising the overall population constitute the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Werner Kirsch , Gabor Toth

We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Steven Heilman

Modern data analysis and statistical learning are marked by complex data structures and black-box algorithms. Data complexity stems from technologies such as imaging, remote sensing, wearable devices, and genomic sequencing. At the same…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Jing Lei

Self-stabilization is a strong property that guarantees that a network always resume correct behavior starting from an arbitrary initial state. Weaker guarantees have later been introduced to cope with impossibility results: probabilistic…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2009-09-29 Stéphane Devismes , Sébastien Tixeuil , Masafumi Yamashita

Stability is an important aspect of a classification procedure because unstable predictions can potentially reduce users' trust in a classification system and also harm the reproducibility of scientific conclusions. The major goal of our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-23 Will Wei Sun , Guang Cheng , Yufeng Liu

The performance of decision policies and prediction models often deteriorates when applied to environments different from the ones seen during training. To ensure reliable operation, we analyze the stability of a system under distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Hongseok Namkoong , Yuanzhe Ma , Peter W. Glynn

Much of the theoretical work on strategic voting makes strong assumptions about what voters know about the voting situation. A strategizing voter is typically assumed to know how other voters will vote and to know the rules of the voting…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Wesley H. Holliday , Eric Pacuit

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-08 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , Alnur Ali , John C. Duchi

We propose a new single-winner voting system using ranked ballots: Stable Voting. The motivating principle of Stable Voting is that if a candidate A would win without another candidate B in the election, and A beats B in a head-to-head…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-02-14 Wesley H. Holliday , Eric Pacuit

Criteria for a good voting system have been given particularly careful scrutiny in recent years, with general agreement that the core values are fair results, voter power and choice, and local representation. This paper reexamines the basic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-29 Denis Mollison