Related papers: Analysis of risk propagation using the world trade…

Localized shocks arising from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and trade protectionism cascade through trade networks, triggering global food crises. Cross-product substitution, a critical response strategy, induces cross-product…

Global and regional integration has grown significantly in recent decades, boosting intra-African trade and positively impacting national economies through trade diversification and sustainable development. However, existing measures of…

Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…

Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial…

Economic growth is often associated with diversification of economic activities. Making a product in a country is dependent on having, and acquiring, the capabilities needed to make the product, making the process path-dependent. We derive…

Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…

Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose…

The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing…

Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here, we reveal the losses of $125$ food products after a…

We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study the impact of a disruption in the production of some goods propagates to other goods and consumers, and how that impact depends on the goods'…

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of food trade networks are…

In complex systems, many different parts interact in non-obvious ways. Traditional research focuses on a few or a single aspect of the problem so as to analyze it with the tools available. To get a better insight of phenomena that emerge…

Distress propagation occurs in connected networks, its rate and extent being dependent on network topology. To study this, we choose economic production networks as a paradigm. An economic network can be examined at many levels: linkages…

Economic models with input-output networks assume that firm or sector (unit) growth is driven by a weighted sum of trade partners' growth and an independently-drawn idiosyncratic shock. I show that the idiosyncratic risk assumption in a…

We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength…

This paper investigates the endogenous formation of supply chains and its consequences for disruption propagation. In production networks where upstream risk is highly correlated and supplier relationships are not observable, the marginal…

We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several…

Trade networks, across which countries distribute their products, are crucial components of the globalized world economy. Their structure is strongly heterogeneous across products, given the different features of the countries which buy and…

In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks. We focus our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community…

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…