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Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

We consider a stochastic factor financial model where the asset price process and the process for the stochastic factor depend on an observable Markov chain and exhibit an affine structure. We are faced with a finite time investment horizon…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-21 Marcos Escobar , Daniela Neykova , Rudi Zagst

We propose a simple technique for verifying probabilistic models whose transition probabilities are parametric. The key is to replace parametric transitions by nondeterministic choices of extremal values. Analysing the resulting…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-05-27 Tim Quatmann , Christian Dehnert , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen

Virtually all questions that one can ask about the behavioral and structural complexity of a stochastic process reduce to a linear algebraic framing of a time evolution governed by an appropriate hidden-Markov process generator. Each type…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-04-18 Paul M. Riechers , James P. Crutchfield

Filtering problems with jumps in both the signal and the observation have been extensively studied, typically under the assumption that jump times are totally inaccessible. In many applications, however, jump times are known in advance…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Thorsten Schmidt , Félix B. Tambe-Ndonfack

This paper deals with a nonlinear filtering problem in which a multi-dimensional signal process is additively affected by a process $\nu$ whose components have paths of bounded variation. The presence of the process $\nu$ prevents from…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-02 Alessandro Calvia , Giorgio Ferrari

For It\^o stochastic equations in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with drift in $L_{d}$ several results are discussed such as the existence of weak solutions, the existence of the corresponding Markov process, Aleksandrov type estimates of their Green's…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-03 N. V. Krylov

We consider affine Markov processes taking values in convex cones. In particular, we characterize all affine processes taking values in an irreducible symmetric cone in terms of certain L\'evy-Khintchine triplets. This is the complete…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-07 Christa Cuchiero , Martin Keller-Ressel , Eberhard Mayerhofer , Josef Teichmann

We study the fluctuations of systems modeled by Markov jump processes with periodic generators. We focus on observables defined through time-periodic functions of the system's states or transitions. Using large deviation theory, canonical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Lydia Chabane , Raphaël Chétrite , Gatien Verley

We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Chang-Han Rhee , Peter Glynn

Semi-Markov processes are Markovian processes in which the firing time of the transitions is modelled by probabilistic distributions over positive reals interpreted as the probability of firing a transition at a certain moment in time. In…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2017-12-04 Mathias Ruggaard Pedersen , Nathanaël Fijalkow , Giorgio Bacci , Kim Guldstrand Larsen , Radu Mardare

The aim of this article is to prove that diffusion processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with a drift can be approximated by suitable Markov chains on $n^{-1}\mathbb{Z}^d$. Moreover, we investigate sufficient conditions on the conductances which…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Marvin Weidner

We consider a Markovian jumping process which is defined in terms of the jump-size distribution and the waiting-time distribution with a position-dependent frequency, in the diffusion limit. We assume the power-law form for the frequency.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-07-20 T. Srokowski , A. Kaminska

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta

The paradigm of differentiable programming has significantly enhanced the scope of machine learning via the judicious use of gradient-based optimization. However, standard differentiable programming methods (such as autodiff) typically…

We introduce a general algorithm for the computation of the scale functions of a spectrally negative L\'evy process $X$, based on a natural weak approximation of $X$ via upwards skip-free continuous-time Markov chains with stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-21 Aleksandar Mijatović , Matija Vidmar , Saul Jacka

A stable-like process is a Feller process $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and whose generator behaves, locally, like an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process, but the index $\alpha$ and all other characteristics may depend on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 V. Knopova , A. Kulik , R. Schilling

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

Generators of Markov processes on a countable state space can be represented as finite or infinite matrices. One key property is that the off-diagonal entries corresponding to jump rates of the Markov process are non-negative. Here we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Florian Völlering

Consider a stochastic process $\{X(t)\}$ on a finite state space $ {\sf X}=\{1,\dots, d\}$. It is conditionally Markov, given a real-valued `input process' $\{\zeta(t)\}$. This is assumed to be small, which is modeled through the scaling,…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Yue Chen , Ana Bušić , Sean Meyn