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We reconsider the deterministic haploid mutation-selection equation with two types. This is an ordinary differential equation that describes the type distribution (forward in time) in a population of infinite size. This paper establishes…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-25 Ellen Baake , Fernando Cordero , Sebastian Hummel

We introduce an individual-based model for structured populations undergoing demographic bottlenecks, i.e. drastic reductions in population size that last many generations and can have arbitrary shapes. We first show that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Marta Dai Pra , Alison Etheridge , Jere Koskela , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We establish convergence to the Kingman coalescent for a class of age-structured population models with time-constant population size. Time is discrete with unit called a year. Offspring numbers in a year may depend on mother's age.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Serik Sagitov , Peter Jagers

Duality plays an important role in population genetics. It can relate results from forwards-in-time models of allele frequency evolution with those of backwards-in-time genealogical models; a well known example is the duality between the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-09 Robert C. Griffiths , Paul A. Jenkins , Sabin Lessard

The goal of these lectures is to review some mathematical aspects of random tree models used in evolutionary biology to model gene trees or species trees. We start with stochastic models of tree shapes (finite trees without edge lengths),…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Amaury Lambert

Genetic drift is stochastic fluctuations of alleles frequencies in a population due to sampling effects. We consider a model of drift in an equilibrium population, with high mutation rates: few functional mutations per generation. Such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-12 Alexey A. Shadrin , Dmitri V. Parkhomchuk

Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-02 Michael D. Karcher , Marc A. Suchard , Gytis Dudas , Vladimir N. Minin

We consider a class of density-dependent branching processes which generalises exponential, logistic and Gompertz growth. A population begins with a single individual, grows exponentially initially, and then growth may slow down as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-11 David Cheek

The recent realization that entire communities fuse and separate (community coalescence) has led to a reappraisal of the forces determining species diversity and dynamics, especially in microbial communities where coalescence is likely…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-05-10 Janis Antonovics , Stavros D. Veresoglou , Matthias C. Rillig

The development of coalescent theory paved the way to statistical inference from population genetic data. In the genomic era, however, coalescent models are limited due to the complexity of the underlying ancestral recombination graph. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-30 Julien Y. Dutheil

Population genetics theory has laid the foundations for genomics analyses including the recent burst in genome scans for selection and statistical inference of past demographic events in many prokaryote, animal and plant species.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-22 Aurelien Tellier , Christophe Lemaire

Genetic data are often used to infer demographic history and changes or detect genes under selection. Inferential methods are commonly based on models making various strong assumptions: demography and population structures are supposed…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-28 Clotilde Lepers , Sylvain Billiard , Matthieu Porte , Sylvie Méléard , Viet Chi Tran

In population genetics, extant samples are usually used for inference of past population genetic forces. With the Kingman coalescent and the backward diffusion equation, inference of the marginal likelihood proceeds from an extant sample…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-03 Claus Vogl , Sandra Peer

The cell cycle duration is a variable cellular phenotype that underlies long-term population growth and age structures. By analyzing the stationary solutions of a branching process with heritable cell division times, we demonstrate…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-04 Takashi Nozoe , Edo Kussell

We consider a neutral dynamical model of biological diversity, where individuals live and reproduce independently. They have i.i.d. lifetime durations (which are not necessarily exponentially distributed) and give birth (singly) at constant…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-09-06 Nicolas Champagnat , Amaury Lambert

In this article, we focus on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson processes with linear-fractional offspring distributions. At a fixed generation, we consider a sample of the individuals alive, drawn in two different ways: either through Bernoulli…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Sandra Palau

Probability modelling for DNA sequence evolution is well established and provides a rich framework for understanding genetic variation between samples of individuals from one or more populations. We show that both classical and more recent…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-06-07 Asger Hobolth , Arno Siri-Jégousse , Mogens Bladt

Comprehensive models of stochastic, clonally reproducing populations are defined in terms of general branching processes, allowing birth during maternal life, as for higher organisms, or by splitting, as in cell division. The populations…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-10-14 Kais Hamza , Peter Jagers , Fima C. Klebaner

We introduce a colored coalescent process which recovers random colored genealogical trees. Here a colored genealogical tree has its vertices colored black or white. Moving backward along the colored genealogical tree, the color of vertices…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jianjun Tian , Xiao-Song Lin

This paper studies the spatial coalescent on $\Z^2$. In our setting, the partition elements are located at the sites of $\Z^2$ and undergo local delayed coalescence and migration. That is, pairs of partition elements located at the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-07 Andreas Greven , Vlada Limic , Anita Winter