Related papers: The work of Hugo Duminil-Copin
This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess.…
In this paper we present a survey on recent developments in the study of ambit fields and point out some open problems. Ambit fields is a class of spatio-temporal stochastic processes, which by its general structure constitutes a flexible…
Recent decades have witnessed a dramatic shift in the cross-border collaboration mode of researchers, with countries increasingly cooperating and competing with one another. It is crucial for leaders in academia and policy to understand the…
A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch…
It has been argued by Daryl Bem in his 2011 paper that 8 out of 9 experiments yielded statistically significant results in favour of the psi effect. It is pointed out in this short communication that many of the results in the above…
In an article written five years ago [arXiv:0809.0522], we described a method for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation data…
The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has witnessed a rapid growth in theoretical and applied contributions to…
We prove results concerning the representation of a given distribution by means of a given random quantity. The existence of a solution to this problem is related to the notion of conglomerability, originally introduced by Dubins to study…
The probability that a configuration of a physical system reacts, or transitions from one metastable state to another, is quantified by the committor function. This function contains richly detailed mechanistic information about transition…
Climate statistics is of course a very broad field, along with the many connections and impacts for yet other areas, with a history as long as mankind has been recording temperatures, describing drastic weather events, etc. The important…
This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…
Scientific fields differ in terms of their subject matter, research techniques, collaboration sizes, rates of growth, and so on. We investigate whether common dynamics might lurk beneath these differences, affecting how scientific fields…
Process mining is a subfield of process science that analyzes event data collected in databases called event logs. Recently, novel types of event data have become of interest due to the wide industrial application of process mining…
The mathematical achievements of Harry Kesten since the mid-1950s have revolutionized probability theory as a subject in its own right and in its associations with aspects of algebra, analysis, geometry, and statistical physics. Through his…
Post-hoc interpretability methods are critical tools to explain neural-network results. Several post-hoc methods have emerged in recent years, but when applied to a given task, they produce different results, raising the question of which…
We survey a decade worth of work pertaining to the nodal structures of random fields, with emphasis on the transformative techniques that shaped the field.
We reminisce and discuss applications of algorithmic probability to a wide range of problems in artificial intelligence, philosophy and technological society. We propose that Solomonoff has effectively axiomatized the field of artificial…
An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…
In this article, recent progress on ML-randomness with respect to conditional probabilities is reviewed. In particular a new result of conditional randomness with respect to mutually singular probabilities are shown, which is a…
Statistical depths have been well studied for multivariate and functional data over the past few decades, but remain under-explored for point processes. A first attempt on the notion of point process depth was conducted recently where the…