Related papers: Prediction of random variables by excursion metric…
An interesting statistical problem is to find regions where some studied process exceeds a certain level. Estimating such regions so that the probability for exceeding the level in the entire set is equal to some predefined value is a…
We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…
In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…
Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…
Let $\{X(t)= (X_1(t),X_2(t))^T,\ t \in \mathbb{R}^N\}$ be an $\mathbb{R}^2$-valued continuous locally stationary Gaussian random field with $\mathbb{E}[X(t)]=\mathbf{0}$. For any compact sets $A_1, A_2 \subset \mathbb{R}^N$, precise…
It has been observed in numerous experiments, simulations, and various theoretical treatments that the spreading of particles can be modeled by the continuous-time random walk. We consider two well-known cases, i.e., Gaussian displacements…
We consider a discrete-time random walk on a line starting at $x_0\geq 0$ where a cost is incurred at each jump. We obtain an exact analytical formula for the distribution of the total cost of a trajectory until the process crosses the…
Many causal parameters depend on a moment of the joint distribution of potential outcomes. Such parameters are especially relevant in policy evaluation settings, where noncompliance is common and accommodated through the model of Imbens &…
In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the…
We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…
We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…
Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to…
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
Accurate travel time estimation is essential for navigation and itinerary planning. While existing research employs probabilistic modeling to assess travel time uncertainty and account for correlations between multiple trips, modeling the…
Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing repeated measures data, including clustered and longitudinal data, where inferences of both fixed effects and variance components are of importance. Unlike the fixed effect inference…
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…
Random walks with a general, nonlinear barrier have found recent applications ranging from reionization topology to refinements in the excursion set theory of halos. Here, we derive the first-crossing distribution of random walks with a…
We give a lower bound for the non-collision probability up to a long time T in a system of n independent random walks with fixed obstacles on the two-dimensional lattice. By `collision' we mean collision between the random walks as well as…
Predicting human mobility patterns has many practical applications in urban planning, traffic engineering, infectious disease epidemiology, emergency management and location-based services. Developing a universal model capable of accurately…